Stacey looks at CCHL prospects by team. Analysis....(Part one)

How does your prospect pool look?

When I look at my list of prospects I often wonder how they compare to other teams.  Have I picked better forwards than I have defense or vice-versa?  I must be honest, I don’t follow the NHL nearly as much as I once did (I don’t know how I could ever complete with the me that reviewed NHL games to find secret good players, looking at you Kyosti Karjalainen and Oleg Petrov!) and I have relied on websites and reviews and Matt Young telling me that a prospect he is giving me is actually good even if no one agrees. 

I wanted to get a better understanding of my teams’ strengths and I wasn’t sure how to do that.  I like playing with numbers and I can do some crunching, so I thought about using a variety of websites to take their player assessments and then somehow merge them to get a single number for each player.  What happens below is step one of many, or maybe just the one step. 

I used Dobber (and their rating system) to analyze the top 200 forward prospects and the top 50 defensive prospects. The caveat to this is that the analyze is only looking at points impact, it won’t be scoring a defensive d-man all that high, even though we know they are important.  A second caveat is that I am not actually sure what a prospect means in this case, as there are some players already playing in the NHL.

Essentially what was done was an excel sheet was created with the top players and then matched them up against our prospects and team roster pages.  I then grouped the ratings into CCHL teams to give a bit of a summary of the prospect ‘power’ that is available for each team.  Most teams had players in the top 200 forwards and defense but there were some absences as well, most notably Hilo Wildcats do not appear in either list.  There is also a list of undrafted players, some of those undrafted players are similar in prospect level to the prospects on some of the CCHL teams (at least according to Dobber).

Forwards –

Of the 200 top prospects there were 18 players that had not been drafted into the CCHL (from what I could tell with my automated matching and manual review), I wonder if they will get drafted this year?

CCHL Team	# of Prospects	Prospect ‘Power’ (sum of the scores)	AVG rating	Max Rating
Parry Sound Orrsmen	19	1130.9	60	80.8
Siberia Icecats	20	1083.8	54	76.1
Victoria Ronin	19	1054	55	71.9
#Undrafted	18	851.2	47	60.9
Sudbury Miners	12	687.4	57	83.7
Dartmouth Lakers	13	682.6	53	65.4
Wisborg Donuts	10	529.3	53	71.9
Fort Erie Falcons	10	513.3	51	66.9
Long Island Express	9	489	54	71.8
Dayton Musicmen	9	450.3	50	80.1
Springfield Isotopes	8	448.9	56	69
Seattle Reign	7	391.5	56	76.2
Calgary Chinook	6	321.7	54	78
Portland Owls	6	319.4	53	65
Niagara Falls Thunder	6	302.9	50	72.3
Reykjavik Puffin	6	296	49	58.9
Capeside Loons	5	263.7	53	63.7
Las Vegas Aces	4	247.4	62	82.9
Minnesota Norsemen	5	234.6	47	52.7
Hamilton Tigers	3	148.4	49	57.9
Georgetown Millers	3	140.9	47	51.6
Gillam Sharks	2	118.4	59	73.2
Total	200		54

The data seems to point to Parry Sound having not only a large group of prospects but also a highly rated group.  There is one team with more prospects, but their average rating is lower which says to me that they may have a mix of top level and some lower level talent in their pipeline.

I was disappointed to see Springfield lower in the list than Dayton as Bill said he thought he had moved his best prospects already, the only joy I can take from this is that my players seem to be slightly better rated on average.

Does this list kind of speak to the understanding of your team?  How does it differ?

I will look at defense next, which is a smaller list but then group the two together to see if it says anything else.

Cheers,
Aaron
SPR 

Siberia's Offseason - What's Happened and What's Next

Well, another offseason and another attempt by many teams to win the elusive Kehler Cup. With Minnesota's win last season and subsequent tear down, it will most likely mean that there will be a new Kehler Cup champion. The Icecats are hoping to finally bring a first ever championship to Siberia.

How has the offseason gone so far? Siberia went out and upgraded their D by acquiring solid defensive dman Erik Johnson, who will likely partner with Brent Burns on the top defensive pairing.  Also new to the team are Evander Kane and Alexander Radulov. Kane will most likely play on the top line with captain McDavid and fellow newcomer Radulov. Kane adds that gritty power winger element while Radulov adds skill and great vision. Hopefully this turns into an offensive powerhouse of a line. That likely means that Nugent-hopkins will play 2nd line LW with a duo that played great together late last season, fellow Selke finalists Patrice Bergeron and Mark Stone. That line should bring the offense while delivering shutdown defensive play.

So what does the rest of the offseason hold for the Cats? With the UFA siging period coming up, the Cats will likely turn their attention to depth instead of top end talent, but if a player worthwhile is there, we may go all in. We definitely have the cash to do that. Then comes the entry draft where the Cats hold the #3 pick and 3 of the top 23 picks in the draft. This should allow us to continue to stockpile the cupboard for trades or to develop.

All in all, the offseason will continue to be busy (and cold!) in Siberia. Stay tuned sports fans!

Dayton makes moves...

Despite a 1st round victory in the playoffs (due entirely to another team over-using its goalie) GM Bill Corfield knew there were decisions to be made in the offseason.

Not enough talent to make a serious run as is, but the 'Men had over 40 draft picks, they had a couple high-end players like Crosby & Kuznetsov, and not very much cash with which to work.

After a season of Simon, it's hard to say Corfield really felt like he understood what pieces he needed to be more of a threat. Never one to stand pat, phone calls were made, emails exchanged and on April 29th, Sidney Crosby was sent to the Lakers for a package of prospects, $7,000,000 in cash and the 4th overall pick in the upcoming draft.

"I felt like that was a good return on a guy like Crosby - Of course, we'll miss him, but we didn't have much to put around him," said Corfield.

On April 30, Dayton acquired UFA to be Matt Niskanen and $950K for two prospects and two mid rounders.

A few days later, DAY officially resigned Niskanen and said goodbye to UFA's Del Zotto, Girardi, Steen, Kuhnhakl, and Oduya. DAY was now very short players with little help coming from the farm team.

On May 1st, DAY sent a package of players and prospects to Fonthill for Matt Benning, two prospects, eight picks (mid rounders) and $5,000,000.

Continuing to address the shortage of blueliners, on the 2nd, the Musicmen sent a 3rd rounder in 2020 to the Miners to bring Brendan Guhle back to Southwest, OH.

On the 4th of May, the Champion Minnesota Norsemen decided to send out a trade block with several names on it, including those of Tyler Seguin and Taylor Hall. Two 27-year-old forwards who would certainly fill a need on Dayton's depth chart for the next few years.

After a few emails of negotiations, the blockbuster deal was struck on the 5th with DAY trading veteran netminder Devan Dubnyk, DRT 1st-19, prospects Callen Foote, Scott Perunovich and two 1st rounders in 2020 the Norsemen for both Tyler Seguin, Taylor Hall, and Pekka Rinne...

Corfield wasn't done.

Two minor deals came in after the MIN deal. The first, saw SIB send DAY $4.8M in cash for five 7th rounders. The second one came in around midnight with DAY acquiring veteran dman Roman Polak in exchange for a 4th in 2019 and a 5th in the 2020 CCHL Entry Draft going to Niagara Falls...

Transcript of the Corfield's press statement:

"The off-season has been a successful one for us - so far. We've been able to cut payroll from a season-ending expenditure of over $94.5M down to its current level of $60.1M. Factoring in the $17.8M in cash coming in via the various deals we've announced in the last couple weeks, our net 2019-20 team payroll is just $42.3M."

"That gives us the flexibility to pursue a few players via the UFA bidding process. We'll be looking for a couple bottom pairing dman and a few forwards to round out the roster."

There's still five-plus days until the twenty-two CCHL teams are required to submit their RFA/UFA contract to the league office.

"We're reaching out to teams that may have a surplus of players that could fit our needs and will continue to do so until the contract deadline. If we can acquire a player or two this way, it would be preferable to obtaining a similar player via free agency, for sure..."

Stay tuned...

Around the CCHL : Millers address recent moves

Addressing a sparse media turnout Friday afternoon (It is Kentucky Derby weekend, all the sportswriters are in Louisville) Millers GM commented on and took questions regarding the team's recent trades.

GM: Thanks to everyone that hasn't yet headed out to Churchill Downs for coming today. The Millers are very happy to announce the acquisitions of Curtis McElhinney, Michael Backlund, and prodigal son Jeff Carter. I'll take your questions now.

Press: Why did you re-acquire Carter and his big salary after his worst NHL season?
GM: Well it's no secret we wanted to move a 4 year contract, and Dayton were interested in taking Fischer back. I'm not certain but I think Bill might be rebuilding again. Before the trade we were projecting Cody Eakin as our 2nd line C and Jay Beagle on the 4th line. Cody doesn't have much experience as a top 6 Center, and there's really no one on the roster who does. We really want Faksa to anchor the 3rd line next year, so we were on the lookout for a C who could play on a variety of lines and contribute on special teams. Jeff is at the stage of his career where he realizes he's not really a top line guy anymore but he knows he still has a lot to contribute. So we sent Jay and Christian's 4 year deal to Dayton for Jeff, with Jeff understanding he's coming into the season as our 4th line C and he'll play on one of the power play units. He's going to get 15 minutes a night in those roles. And if Cody needs a breather than Jeff can slide into that 2nd line spot easily.

Press: Why did you acquire McElhinney when you have Miller as a backup goaltender?
GM: We really needed someone that can split duties with Jordan Binnington, give us 35 to 40 games. Unfortunately Ryan just can't do that nowadays. And it was easier, and the acquisition cost pretty low, to bring in a guy like Curtis who can give us those games and be comfortable in the backup role. We didn't want to scour the leftover bin for a goalie we only need for 5 games.

Press: Will Miller be traded?
GM: It's the best thing for Ryan to move to a club that needs a solid goalie who can play 30 games a year if needed. He is not a 3rd goalie. He's way too good for that. We are dedicated to finding the right fit for Ryan to move to, and we are more than willing to contribute a substantial amount of his salary.

Press: Is Backlund your top line Center? What about Schenn?
GM: We acquired Backlund with the idea that he will center Brayden and probably Turbo on the top line. Michael does it all - solid defensively, a very good scorer at evens and a great teammate. It's no secret Brayden had some defensive issues as a pivot and was prone to taking too many penalties. We think if he's back on the wing he can play his game and that will make Brayden and the team better in the long run.

Press: Are you concerned with not having a traditional #1 Center?
GM: Not really. Both Backlund and Eakin can score, but with the talent we have on the wings they don't have to be the focal point of the offense. They can sit back a bit more and allow Josi and Hamilton room to do their thing and not leave the defense exposed. If both of them are scoring 40 to 45 points at even strength, and we are winning games, I will be happy with their production.

Press: Any more moves you are looking to make?
GM: Aside from finding a good fit for Ryan Miller, we would like to ease the logjam of bottom 6 forwards we have. I'm not sure where Pitlick and Nieto fit in right now with Kotkaniemi, Foegele and Dickinson ready to contribute. Seems a waste to have Charlie Coyle on a wing so if a team needs a solid 3rd line Center they should call us.

GM: I'm sure all you media types are itching to hit the road to Louisville, so we'll wrap up here. Safe travels everyone.

State of the Loons; Off season edition

There are two ways that one can look at the Loons inaugural CCHL season. A  positive person would see the first place finish in the Corfield Conference, most wins in the CCHL and second most in points as a huge success -  but I am not a positive person. Instead, I continue to dwell on the second round exit to the Falcons. A series that ended with a devastating game 7 overtime loss on home ice. Did I scratch the wrong player? Were my lines not optimal? Should I have leaned more heavily on my top lines? And then there is #GoalieGate. In the preseason we had picked the Falcons as the team we thought would represent the Corfield Conference in the Kehler Cup Finals. Admittedly, the Falcons are a more talented team then the Loons, so we should take solace in the fact that we lost to a better team, right? Wrong! Instead, we are bitter that we lost to a team we thought we had been lucky enough to avoid. (It is easier to be bitter and blame everyone and everything else than admit we weren't the better team right?) Hopefully, the Loons can use this bitterness in a positive way. Hopefully, that bitterness will stick with them and be a constant reminder that we need to work harder and make better decisions if we want to beat more talented teams like the Falcons.

Now since that is out of the way, let's take a look at the upcoming offseason.

Free agency is rapidly approaching. Capeside currently has 9 unrestricted free agents on our roster: both Loon goaltenders in Rask and Halak, top defenseman Niskanen, second leading scorer Sedin, along with Bobby Ryan, Kris Russell, Rick Nash, Eric Fehr, and Jay McClement. Nash, Sedin, and McClement have already filed their retirement paperwork with the league. CCHL rules allow only one UFA to be resigned, the decision seemingly comes down to Niskanen, Rask or the cheaper goaltending option in Halak. Ideally, we would bring both Rask and Niskanen back, but finding a trading partner with an open UFA spot would be difficult. GM Czepiel will likely have to make the hard decision to trade one of them or try to outbid 21 other teams.

As far as restricted free agents go, the Loons have only 4: Viktor Arvidsson, Derek Grant, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and Teemu Pulkkinen. Resigning Arvidsson even to a hefty raise is a no brainer. Grant is expected back on a team friendly deal as a depth player. Gabriel large salary increase and Pulkinen's lack of talent make them likely to play elsewhere in the CCHL or in Pulkinen's case - a Friday night beer league.

To say Capeside was active in the trade market last year would be an understatement. GM Czepiel did a complete overhaul of a terrible roster and was able to bring in players that were more of his type of guys. We anticipate being far less active this year. However, a deal with Sudbury has already been made. Brayden McNabb who was a trade deadline addition last season is once again on the move. McNabb heads to Sudbury in return for the 32nd overall pick in the upcoming draft along with prospect Tyler Madden. Because of our semi-successful season last year we were propelled to make moves that depleted both our prospects and our upcoming draft picks. We currently have only 7 picks in the upcoming draft and will be looking for ways to add a few more in the upcoming weeks. The loss of McNabb, along with the uncertainty around Niskanen, the Loons will surely be looking to add some veteran leadership to the blue line over the next few months.

Right wing is another hole that the Loons will be looking to fill over the next few months. We have an overload of players on the left side in Donato, Debrusk, Vrana, Gourde and Lucic with only Arvidsson on the right side. Vrana and Gourde will most likely to be used as trade bait in order to balance out line combinations.

Some of our young players made great strides over the past year. Capt. Dubois will lock down a top six center spot next year. Carlo is steadily evolving into a top pairing shutdown defenseman. And players like Debrusk, Murray, and Vrana will be leaned on more heavily next year as they will hopefully continue to improve.

At least we can say that we tried to end this on a more positive note.