Tuesday, August 22, 2017

What the Hell is Going On In Dayton??? (Part Two)

The morning of July 9th was a bright, clear and comfortable time to be outdoors. As Musicmen General Manager Bill Corfield cycled along the Great Miami River Recreation Trail, his mind reviewed the 'Men's roster that would be going into the 17-18 preseason. The CCHL had finally reached the start of "Summer shut down," which allowed other issues to be the focus over the day to day operations of the league.

Centers: Sid - a top 5 player in the CCHL at almost $11 Million a year. He was worth it. Bergeron - an elite 3rd line center who seemed lost in much of the 16-17 campaign and had one year left on a $8.8 million dollar contract. Almost certainly gone after this season barring something wholly unexpected. Antoine Vermette, who returned to Dayton for the third time in the last six seasons, but was now a depth defensive centerman. Also entering the final year on his contract, his time with the team was likely drawing to a final chapter. Only Sid was permanent, well, nothing is permanent in hockey, but a core player. The rest of the guys were solid pros and Corfield wanted to make sure Vermette wound up somewhere he liked, if possible... Mattias Janmark was also a part of our future but wouldn't be on the next disk due to an injury. We wouldn't see him until the 2018 training camp.

Forwards: Panarin and Pavelski were core guys but Pavelski was getting up there in age. Artemi Panarin was coming off two strong seasons and was seventh overall in that time span in scoring. Surely, Corfield thought, Artemi Panarin wasn't going anywhere. Then there was Phil Kessel. Despite his unfairly low defensive rating every year, Kessel was a valuable member of the team. Defense and backchecking was never Phil's game but he did what we asked him to do. In the last two seasons combined, Kessel had played in 163 games, scored 60 goals, 106 assists and was a plus 142. In APBA, with the right guys, Kessel was big money. He was signed to a four-year deal after the playoffs and all sides were happy.  Nikolay Kulemin, the leader of the team's 3rd line was also looking forward to a strong season in 17-18.

Defense: Some big names... Shea Weber, Brent Burns, TJ Brodie, Andrei Markov, Francoise Beauchemin, Alec Martinez along with Mark Stuart were the returning seven blueliners. Weber was solid as hell like he always seems to be, plus Burns had turned in a Norris Trophy year and had been Dayton's UFA resign. They were expensive too, totaling over 40 Million dollars for the group. Weber and Burns were the top guys and the rest filled in nicely behind them.

Goaltending: Devan Dubnyk seemed to be on his way to an elite season until the All-Star break after which he seemed not himself. Finishing with a .923 save percentage was still very good, but hopes for a plus .930% number faded quickly. There's a huge difference between a .923 and a .930+ save percentage and Corfield had been troubled by Dubnyk's inconsistency since last January. Was he the real deal or was he a good but not great netminder benefitting from a great system. Behind him was Brian Elliot, a solid backup. Both guys were going to be UFA's after the coming season.

AS CORFIELD RODE through the Ohio countryside, he strained for ways to improve his team for the coming season. Teams like Georgetown, Calgary, Rejkjavik and Fort Erie were always good it seemed and newcomers like Hamilton, Siberia and Minnesota had all been hoarding high upside talent the past few years and everybody knew that they were going to be major factors going forward. Every year there were also a few "surprise teams" that most didn't see coming.

Dayton had virtually zero draft picks from the next two drafts. Dayton's elite prospects were all gone and those that remained were B prospects at best. Most weren't that good. Financially, Dayton was at its lowest cash reserve level of $78.4 since the late 1990's, when the league was in a very different financial place. The Musicmen had always had a LOT of cash available but it had come time to pay the hockey piper.  They'd lost $14M last season and the payroll didn't look to be that different this year.

No picks or prospects to swap for important pieces and the money was looking rough.

Bill took a break by the Taylorsville Dam on Route 40, just North of Dayton and sat on a bench. He sat there for about an hour playing different scenarios out in his mind. Did he trade a big fish to get 2-3 lesser fishes that might produce a net gain? He had a good goalie but not a great one and his 3rd line needed major work, Bergeron and Vermette, while good defensively, brought almost no offense for the coming year. His top line would be unstoppable, but after that - there were holes and questions all throughout the lineup.

He thought back to the Summer of 2012 after Dayton had won their third Cup. While different, there were similarities to this year's situation. Aging team core, payroll sky high, big name prospects and draft picks shipped out to win then. Win they did. That off-season, Corfield developed a plan to blow it all up in the first half of the 2012-13 CCHL season. Which they did. Move anybody and everybody out the door to the highest bidder for the sake of the future.

Dayton had drafted well in the 2013 draft after the fire sale, grabbing eight kids who would be future NHL-ers. That retooling had set the table for his recent success.

It worked then...

It could work again...

BACK on his bike, about 15 miles from his home, it was decided the pros outweighed the cons and the decision had been made. After the disc was released, Dayton would first put Shea Weber on the block and see who was interested. Then, after that, they would send out a larger trade block with everybody else except Panarin. Even that was flexible.

"I've always said be willing to trade anybody if the return is right..."

The new APBA disk was released in the first week of August.

On August 6th, Dayton sent out an email to the league alerting them that defenseman Shea Weber was available.

On August 13th, Shea Weber, Antoine Vermette and $10,000,000 were traded to the Calgary Chinook for Sean Monahan, a few role players and six late round draft picks.

On August 13th, the larger and second trade block went out to the league with everyone on it.

In the afternoon of August 13th, Dayton traded Sidney Crosby, Andrei Markov and $3.75M to CGY for Alex Barkov, Ivan Provorov, Jonathon Drouin and a 6th round draft pick.

Also on the 13th, Brent Burns was traded to the Fort Erie Falcons for Nate MacKinnon.

Next, Artemi Panarin was moved to the Chinook for Dylan Larkin, Travis Sanheim and the rights to DAY 2nd in the 2019 CCHL Draft.

Dubnyk and Bergeron were then moved to the Minnesota Norsemen for Jake Guentzel, prospect Dante Fabbro and Blake Comeau and Jimmy Howard.

Joe Pavelski and a 3rd was traded to Calgary for former 19th over all pick Evgeny Svechinov and several additional mid round picks from CGY.

Next, Martinez and Kulemin were dealt to the Hammerheads for a 2nd and 3rd rounder.

Howard was sent to the Chinook for prospect and former 2nd round pick, defenseman Marcus Pettersson.

In all, over a dozen current Musicmen were traded away that week. The roster virtually turned over, the only players remaining from the Cup championship team were Brian Elliot, Phil Kessel and reserve forward Mattias Janmark.

Reaction was swift. Most people tipped their hats to Eugene Yip, GM of the Chinook who walked away with most of the core of Dayton's Cup team and when layered onto what Yip already had in house, people just shook their heads. Calgary has to be the clear favorite to win the Cup next Spring.

A few GM's whispered that Calgary had certainly gone all in with these moves, but has sent away a ton of youth with elite upside. In the end, it was a price he felt comfortable paying and the guys from Dayton will perform and produce. Does that mean a championship? Maybe...

PART THREE

Fans explode, young players arrive for camp and Phil keeps his bags packed....

(Part three will be published August 29th, 2017)



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