I Wanna Get Lost in Your Rock ‘ n Roll and Draft Away (SEA)

As we all know any sports league that drafts persons of high school and college age has it down to an exact science. In other words every player drafted will make the league and have a career reflecting their drafted position. Thus all #1 picks will be perennial All-Stars and retire with Hall of Fame statistics some 15-20 years after being drafted…..what’s that you say…it isn’t an exact science some #1 picks will never live up to their hype and late round or even last overall picks may forge out a nice little career in the league….well what do you know.

With that in mind let’s take a quick look at the most recently completed CCHL amateur draft.

For the purpose of this exercise we will look at the 22 1^st Round picks made by the CCHL teams and compare them to their projected draft position from various sources.

The comparison was done for the entire CCHL draft but there were certain factors that limit the “accuracy” for later round picks.

First many sources have limited draft rankings thus a player chosen 225^th overall in the CCHL would not be found on many if any rankings lists. There were 7 sources used with 2 of those ranking 300 draft eligible prospects while one only ranked the top 31 or enough to cover the 1^st Round of the NHL.

Second Youtube videos or message boards from hockey related websites were not used. Not that there are not credible lists from persons who follow the sport but rather there are numerous lists that vary in number of picks or prospects they cover. Also determining which lists are credible (i.e. not a “fanboy” list, or 1^st time person has made one) would require hours and hours of time that this beautiful bastard does not have.

Finally the NHL’s Central Scouting list and any other sources that breakup prospects into different categories or do not create one list, regardless of length, were excluded. This was done to keep things simplistic as does the 8^th ranked European skater fall ahead or behind the 13^th ranked North American skater. Does the #2 ranked RW slot in ahead of the #4 ranked C or the #3 ranked D?

With all that being said below is the 1^st Round of the CCHL draft compared to an aggregate ranking from 7 other sources. Ultimately we will see how the CCHL’s collective GM knowledge is when the NHL makes their picks to see how closely our selections align with theirs.

Name		CCHL Pick	Aggregate Ranking	CCHL Team
Alexis	Lafreniere	1	1.1	CGY
Tim	Stuzle	2	3.3	CAP
Lucas	Raymond	3	5.0	WIS
Quinton	Byfield	4	2.1	FOR
Jamie	Drysdale	5	6.1	FOR(2)
Marco	Rossi	6	5.1	LIE
Cole	Perfetti	7	7.1	SUD
Alexander	Holtz	8	7.3	HAM
Jake	Sanderson	9	10.3	SIB
Seth	Jarvis	10	14.9	GEO
Yaroslav	Askarov	11	11.4	SIB(2)
Anton	Lundell	12	9.7	CGY(2)
Dylan	Holloway	13	15.6	SUD(2)
Jack	Quinn	14	14.7	POR
Rodion	Amirov	15	16.0	VIC
Connor	Zary	16	18.6	MOS
Dawson	Mercer	17	15.9	SEA
Kaiden	Guhle	18	21.0	TAM
Mavrik	Bourque	19	20.9	SPR
Jan	Mysak	20	25.2	POR(2)
Hendrix	Lapierre	21	27.1	SUD(3)
Jacob	Perreault	22	25.7	CAP(2)

Looking at the chart a few things to note.

One can ignore the decimal number and round up or down accordingly if they wish but it was kept in just to reflect the actual average ranking.

** Jan Mysak appeared on only 6 lists. It was the only list that ranked just one round (31) of prospects

Nothing deviates too much in the top 9 picks of the draft, with only Raymond two spots higher and Byfield two spots lower from CCHL picks and the composite rankings.

As to be expected there starts to be a little deviation as we get further along in the draft.

#10 Seth Jarvis chosen about 5 spots higher than his aggregate

#12 Anton Lundell selected a couple spots lower than his aggregate

#13 Dylan Holloway the opposite of Lundell as Holloway was selected about 2-3 spots higher

#16 Connor Zary like Holloway chosen about 2-3 spots higher

#18 Kaiden Guhle like Zary and Holloway chosen above his aggregate by 3 spots

#20 Jan Mysak who was only listed on 6 source rankings went about 5 picks higher

#21 Hendrix Lapierre the biggest deviation in the 1^st round being chosen about 6 spots higher

#22 Jacob Perreault the final pick of the CCHL 1^st Round is about 4 spots higher than his aggregate.

Of course in the CCHL teams trade away their draft picks like Halloween candy so quite often you have teams with multiple picks in a round. This year 7 1^st round picks were traded resulting in 6 teams having multiple picks in Round 1 (Calgary, Fort Erie, Siberia, Sudbury, Portland and Capeside) with 1 of those, Sudbury, having 3 picks.

Having multiple picks in a round can lead to teams making the 2^nd or 3^rd pick in a round for a reason other than the perceived “best player available”. A team may pick a player a little earlier than projected in order to add depth to a position where they have few prospects. They may choose to use their extra picks on a player who they may have seen play or will have a chance to see play. A GM may also be willing to use a pick on a boom or bust type player since they have already added a couple of “safe” players with their other picks in that round.

This is not to say that was the case in Round 1 however any or all of the above may have been a GM’s criteria when making their picks.

Sudbury has already traded away one of the 3 players they drafted in the 1^st Rd sending Dylan Holloway to Amos. Sudbury and Amos might have already discussed and agreed to a deal leading to Sudbury selecting Holloway rather than a different prospect with the 13^th overall pick. Deals such as this would or could have impacted where a player was chosen.

One thing to note is that with no NHL draft having occurred GM’s in the CCHL may not have chosen the players they did as they may have rather preferred to select one chosen by their favorite NHL team.

It will be interesting to see if trades start to occur in earnest come later this year after the NHL draft concludes. Some CCHL GM’s may try to pry away prospects from other CCHL teams because that player was chosen by their favorite NHL team and they were not fortunate enough to have selected them in the CCHL draft.

Until then……