Sunday, January 7, 2024

Millers Musings (for the Around the CCHL Blog)

 Almost 2/3 of the way through the season and the Millers, fresh off their 11 game win streak having been broken, find themselves 6th overall in the CCHL with 73 points after 52 games. They are 7th in scoring and 7th in defense. Overall the club have met their internal pre-season expectations of being a top 10 team in the league.


Over the next few weeks we’re gong to take a look at the team positionally and organizationally, examining the Forwards today. In addition to a review of the current season there will also be a look at how the player projects for next season. Defense and Goalies will be covered next weekend, and the prospects the weekend after that.

The Millers have used every player on the team so far this season; owing to a couple of trades there are 16 forwards currently rostered. The forwards are ranked by their average ice time as a Miller.

Scott Laughton, C/LW (17.88)
This season: After long negotiations with Chippewa, the Millers eventually parted with their 2024 1st rounder to acquire the versatile forward. Since coming to Central KY he’s been worth the high price, scoring 19 points in 16 games and solidifying the LW spot on the top line.
Nest year: Laughton’s NHL TOI has dropped as has his scoring; given his current trajectory he’s liable to be on the 2nd or 3rd line in 24-24.

Dylan Larkin, C (17.44)
This season: The Captain has been among the leading scorers in the CCHL with 67 points through 52 games. After spending the first half as the first line Center, he’s been “demoted” to the 2nd line, but is still top choice on the PP.
Next year: More of the same, playing major minutes, being a leader and scoring a point per game.

Claude Giroux, RW/C (16.16)
This season: The vet has averaged just over a point per game, starting on the 2nd line initially but now on the top line. He shows no signs of slowing down.
Next year: Father Time hasn’t caught up to him yet, and Giroux will once again be leaned on for his scoring in a top 6 RW role.

Andrew Copp, C/LW/RW (16.93)
This season: After a torrid start, Copp has moved down the lineup and is currently the 3rd line C and on the first PK unit, and also  contributes on the 2nd PP. His versatility has seen him play all over the top 9.
Next season: Similar to this year, a 3rd line role with special teams contributions.

J.T. Compher, C/RW (16.61)
This season: Compher has overtaken Larkin as the top line C, showing incredible chemistry with Laughton and Giroux. His 46 points in 52 games put him 3rd on the club. He’s also been an asset on the 2nd PP and PK units.
Next year: At worst he’ll center the 2nd line and play special teams and eat up minutes.

Jared McCann, LW/C (16.41)
This season: The recent acquisition from Capeside has settled in nicely on Larkin’s LW with 7 points in 8 games. Surprisingly he has not scored a PP point yet despite averaging 4.5 minutes of PP duty per game.
Next year: Top 6 LW and PP mainstay, despite his early struggles this season on the man advantage.

Reilly Smith, RW/LW (15.88)
This season: Acquired with McCann, Smith is on his 3rd tour of duty with the Millers franchise. Playing on the 2nd line with Larkin and McCann he only has 1 ES point, but opposite of McCann has contributed 3 points on the 2nd PP unit.
Next year: Middle 6 winger and 2nd unit PP.

Andreas Athanasiou, LW/RW (14.41)
This season: Added late in the preseason and looked upon as bottom 6 cover, “AA” got off to a torrid start averaging over a point per game through the 1st quarter of the season and showing instant chemistry with Copp on the 2nd line. He eventually dropped off the pace and has since settled into a 3rd line role and on the 2nd PP unit.
Next year: Injuries and poor NHL performance have his role in doubt for next year-best case scenario is 4th line but it’s more likely he’s a reserve.

Ivan Barbashev, LW/C (13.66)
This season: Re-acquired with the hope of adding some jam to the Larkin line, Barbashev never really clicked with any of the top 6 combos he was tried on but has found success on the 3rd line of late. He’s supplied the muscle, with 7 fights so far and 92 hits doled out.
Next year: Likely a middle 6 LW and physical presence.

Blake Coleman, LW/RW (12.64)
This season: Signed as a FA to a 2 year, $13 million contract, Coleman has found himself as a scratch during the club’s recent 11 game winning streak. Coleman has not played badly, but has not clicked with any line mates and despite a SH goal was not particularly successful when deployed as a penalty killer. He’s likely to remain a highly paid 13th forward unless injuries strike.
Next year: It could be rags to riches for Coleman next year as he is currently at a .75 ppg pace in the NHL. If he keeps it up don’t be surprised if he’s in the top 6 next season.

Nick Bjugstad, C/RW (12.43)
This season: Bottom 6 forward and penalty-killer. Has played better on the 4th line. Leads GEO’s forwards in PK minutes.
Next year: Bjugstad is UFA, and it’s up in the air if he’ll be re-signed. If he is it’s likely to be in same role as this season.

Jordan Martinook, LW/RW (11.80)
This season: Started as the 2nd line LW and slid down and eventually out of the lineup. Does a lot well but doesn’t have any standout skill and isn’t a special teams guy aside from taking some turns on the 2nd PK unit. An organization and fan favorite but there’s just no spot for him.
Next year: UFA and highly unlikely to return.

Logan O’Connor, RW/LW (11.44)
This season: Despite no offense he found himself in the lineup for the near entirety of the 11 game win streak. The PK has been a little better since he was added and as long as that lasts he’ll stay in the lineup.
Next year: He is RFA but likely to be extended. 4th line winger and penalty killer with no guarantees of consistent ice-time unless the offense picks up.

Michael Rasmussen, LW/C (10.91)
This season: The young and large Swede has not played badly, with 16 points in 45 games despite just under 11 minutes per game and no substantial PP time. A look-see on the 2nd line did not yield positive results which led to the McCann and Laughton acquisitions.  Like Coleman he doesn’t contribute much on special teams and has been out of the lineup recently.
Next year: He should add RW to his positions and has been killing penalties in the NHL, so there’s a good chance he gets back into the lineup, likely on the 4th line.

Barclay Goodrow, C/LW (10.38)
This season: Acquired with the idea of being the depth defensive bottom 6 forward, Barclay has snatched an everyday role with some unexpected offense (17 pts in 46 gp) and excellent ES defense.
Next year: His NHL ice time is down and the CCHL offense is a fluke, so odds are good that Barclay reverts to his original expectation as a depth forward.

Nathan Bastian, RW/C (7.31)
This season. He’s seen the ice on 7 occasions, playing on the 4th line and not scoring. Odds are not good that he sees any more game time this season.
Next year: The RFA may be re-signed but would be a bench player once again if brought back.

This year’s Forward lines to date (C-LW-RW):
Compher-Laughton-Giroux
Larkin-McCann-Smith
Copp-Barbashev-Athanasiou
Bjugstad-Goodrow-O’Connor
Reserves: Coleman, Rasmussen, Martinook, Bastian

Next year’s projection (does not include UFAs):
Larkin-McCann-Giroux
Compher-Coleman-Smith
Laughton-Barbashev-Copp
Rasmussen-Goodrow-O’Connor
Reserve: Athanasiou

UFA: Bjugstad
RFA: O’Connor, Bastian
Potential Rookies/Callups: Dylan Guenther

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