CCHL Update: Three seasons revenue, Draft Lottery and playoff reminder

 Hi Everyone,  

Just a few things about our upcoming season game revenue payouts and the Draft Lottery: 

I'll be concise and provide the amounts here for the upcoming seasons but will post the breakdown of how the numbers came about on the blog.  It's detailed and as some in the executive committee lamented, "too detailed for them to understand" - an unfortunate pitfall of myself being a business analyst at work.  

Future Seasons Payouts:

The NHL's ability to project where the salary cap is going has allowed us to project where our payouts for games will go over the next three years.  

As always the goal was to get to 90% of the NHL spend, which we have done below, and wanted to give you a sneak peek at what it would be over the next three years.  

The bonus and playoff revenues will remain unchanged in the next three years at this point as they are standard and does not take into account what people are spending on payroll at all.  

In 25-26 teams will get:

WIN:  $1,650,000

LOSS: $1,225,000

SOL/OTL:  $1,450,000

In 26-27 teams will get:

WIN: $1,800,000

LOSS:$1,335,000

SOL/OTL: $1,580,000

In 27-28 teams will get:

WIN: $1,980,000

LOSS: $1,450,000

SOL/OTL: $1,775,000

Of course, if the NHL changes their numbers downward as a result of something (better not be another bloody pandemic), we will adjust accordingly too.  In other words, still be very cognizant of your finances as this is merely meant to keep up with the NHL, assuming teams continue to spend like most do to the cap.  I'll be honest I'm super curious how many teams will spend $105+ million but hey, we'll find out soon enough, right?  

DRAFT LOTTERY:

We will do the draft lottery on Thursday night (February 27th) after days 1 and 2 of the playoffs at 7:00PM Eastern time.  

We will once again do this on zoom.  If you are interested in attending, please le let me know so I can send you the zoom link.  

PLAYOFF REMINDER: 

We always play two days at a time during playoffs.  This is because Day 1 is Corfield, Day 2 is Cansoa Conference.  Every team will play every day and you get the rest day on your roster when the other conference plays.  

Also just a reminder on goalie usage in the playoffs.  

45+ Regular season games played (CCHL) equals 7 games per playoff series...
40-44 Regular season games played (CCHL) equals 6 games per playoff series...
35-39 Regular season games played (CCHL) equals 5 games per playoff series...
30-34 Regular season games played (CCHL) equals 4 games per playoff series...
21-29 Regular season games played (CCHL) equals 3 games per playoff series...
16-20 Regular season games played (CCHL) equals 2 games per playoff series...
<16 Regular season games played (CCHL) equals 0 games per playoff series...

If you are in a spot where you don't have any goalie games available on your eligible guys, we move to the lowest-rated goalie on your roster for the remainder of the series.  

Best of luck to all those teams competing for 8th place in their respective conferences.  

Fort Erie records broken

 It has been a very good season for the Fort Erie Falcons, and in so many ways, could be the best in the hisotry of the team.  

There are a number of records being broken or on the verge of being broken this season so let's take a look at some of them.  

Most goals by a team in a season - Fort Erie trail last year's Sudbury Miners team for most goals in a season by one goal.  With games to play, it appears the Falcons offence will fly high and finish the year as the highest scoring team in the history of the Simon T era in the CCHL.  

Best PP by a team in a season - Fort Erie is currently firing at a 29.56% ratio on the powerplay which if it stands, would break last year's 28.10% held by the Calgary Chinook.  It would be a 6% improvement on the powerplay from a year ago for the Falcons - a team never known for a great powerplay despite always being a top team in the league the last five seasons.  

Auston Matthews - Most Points - Matthews is a point away from trying Patrick Kane's team record for 116 points in a season and will likely do that with a few games left in the season.  It's been an unreal year for the man called "Papi" in Fort Erie and this season could be a tough one to break once he sets the record.  While Nichushkin is ahead in points, he didn't play the full season as a Falcon so that will not count as the team record.  

Austin Matthews - Most Goals - Matthews is looking to build on a record he's already captured, as he has topped Mitch Marner's previous club record already with 52 goals (Marner held it with 51).  The man with the 'stache can only add to his already huge total.  

Adam Fox - Fox has broken the CCHL record for assists already, which means he owns the Falcons record as well.  He is also the highest scoring defender in team history with 94 points and he looks to build on that in this record breaking season for him - records that were already held by him.  

Five guys over 90 points - Matthews, Marner, Draisaitl, Fox and Trocheck all have over 90 points (6 if you include Nichushkin) which has never been done in Falcons history.  You could defintely draw a parallel with this scoring success and the Falcons team record power play (highlighted in the league record blog) and the results have combined to have an unforgettable season for the team.  

What does all of this mean?  As the playoffs are about to begin it could all be meaningless if Fort Erie can't capture the one trophy that's eluded the franchise for 15 seasons.  A trip to the final and another loss would have them lose four finals in that time, including their three straight final losses back in the day to Copenhagen and Niagara Falls.  

Indeed this team will ultimately be judged by their playoff performance however, it's been an outstanding season for the team regardless of how the playoffs play out.  With so many good teams in the CCHL this season, it is impossible to say the Falcons are the favorite entering the CCHL's second season.  

CCHL Record Breaking season

 Since the CCHL transitioned several years ago to the Simon T simulator, we've seen a lot of interesting historical stats kept that we can look at and review.  With that, we have some records that are unofficially the stats for which we have CCHL records since previous records weren't kept.  

In this Simon T era of the CCHL, we're seeing some records changing this season!  

The first record we've already seen re-written is for goals in a season as Georgetown's Dylan Larkin has 62 goals which erases the previous record of 61 held by Connor McDavid.  

The good news for McDavid is that his 135 point record season is likely safe, as Crosby needs 7 points in the final two games to get there.  Is it impossible?  Absolutely not - but it is very unlikely despite Crosby's season likely to stand as the second-best point total in the Simon era of the CCHL.  

Nobody will get close to the shots taken record as this year's leader will finish almost 90 shots behind all-time shot leader in a season Mika Zabinejad who took a wild 470 shots four seasons ago.  That, along with his faceoff numbers that season, must have led to some very fatigued arms after that year as that is a ton of shots!  

The plus/minus record appears to be safe as well, as Adrian Kempe would need to be plus four in Wisborg's final game of the season - again not impossible but probably quite unlikely.  

Another record that has been broken is the most assists in a single season as Patrice Bergeron's 81 assists four years ago have been bested by Fort Erie's Adam Fox this year.  There's something to be said for operating the point on the league's leading powerplay in Fort Erie, and it certainly shows in the assist totals!  

I'm sure there are more records broken or very close to it but these ones stood out when looking at the stats from this year compared to our league's historical stats.  

Hopefully you enjoyed this look at some of our record breaking season!  

Falcons at the Four Nations event

 With the return of international competition this week, it meant Fort Erie would have an opportunity to see some of their players on a bigger stage than their NHL teams.  

It's always interesting to see who is selected, and for the Falcons it turns out they had a lot of players chosen.  

Canada:  Hagel, Bennett, Marner, Toews, Sanheim and late addition Harley

USA:  Slavin, Fox, Matthews, Trocheck

Sweden: Forsling

Finland:  Luukonen

Canada has a very extensive list of Falcons, with Bennett and Harley being surprise additions after spending most of the season out of the lineup for the team.  While they didn't play a lot this season, their roles will grow next year with Bennett expected to form a vicious checking line with Trocheck and Sherwood - a trio that will have more hits in the NHL this season than any other CCHL line could throw out there.  Will it work?  Who knows.......but that's the beauty of it as Bennett could also find his way onto a line with Draisaitl and Marner given his ability to add some moxy to that line while being able to score.  

The American players on the Falcons are all guys that contribute in different ways.  As the world found out in the USA/Canada game, Jaccob Slavin is just on another level defensively and continues to be the most underappreciated player in hockey.  All he does annually is post 30 points while matching up against the league's best forwards and succeeds in shutting them down.  

Adam Fox is just a steady 70 point guy and will see a massive raise in the CCHL next year but it's a raise that the Falcons can handle.  Trocheck is having a down year in the NHL despite playing 21 minutes a game and winning 60% of his faceoffs, but the addition of real-life best friend JT Miller to the Rangers might kick-start that offence once again.  

Gustav Forsling is a lot like Slavin in that he isn't appreciated nearly enough for his +30 every season, but I can't say he's nearly as underappreciated given his play in the playoffs last year.  Forsling was on the map in a big way there.  

If Germany were to have a team, there's no doubt Draisaitl and Peterka would be headlining it along with Stutzle and Seider.  It'll be exciting to see them all suit up together at the Olympics as German hockey has come a long way in the last 20 years.  

Will having 12 players on the rosters mean playoff success in the CCHL for the Falcons?  It's hard to say but it certainly shows the team is on the right track in terms of finding elite talent to suit up.  

CCHL in-season free agency

 I'm back with another topic of interest this week. While I wouldn't normally discuss a potential change in a blog like this, I am curious about feedback on the idea.  

When looking at the CCHL free agent pool during the season, some players there should likely be on CCHL teams but are not because their NHL salary prohibits it from happening.  

My initial thought is well that is the way the cookie crumbles and it is what it is, but on the other hand, I can't help but wonder why.  Why does it have to be that way?  

If a player remains unsigned through free agency in the spring and passes through the waiver draft, why couldn't they be signed for the CCHL minimum salary for a minimum of two or more years?  The psychology of the player would dictate that they would take the money over sitting out, especially if a team is getting them discounted and making a commitment to them.

 There's likely a benefit to a team having a Brenden Gallagher or Josh Anderson in their lineup on the fourth line as well, or any other players that could find themselves in this spot where they are overpaid by their NHL GM, but could still easily help a team in the CCHL on a contract that represents sane thought.  

Does this make sense to look at changing for the upcoming season(s)?  What are your thoughts?  Hit me up via email or slack and let me know!  

Falcons gearing up for busy off-season

While much has yet to be decided with the CCHL playoffs looming in the not-so-distant future, the Fort Erie Falcons know that they will have some tough decisions this off-season no matter how the playoffs go.  

With three prime time free agents in Steven Stamkos, Zach Hyman and Valeri Nichushkin on the roster, the team recognizes only one of them can be re-signed based on the CCHL rules.  

It has yet to be decided who will receive the contract as negotiations with representatives for all three are underway, but Nichushkin is likely the most attractive given the fit he's had with the team, and the fact he'll only need a 10% raise on a $2.5 million dollar contract.  On the otherhand, that contract and his 100 point season could be really appealing for another CCHL team to come calling, especially a rebuilding team that can wait for him to play more games in an NHL season in another year.  

Hyman and Stamkos will both likely hit the 30 goal marks in the NHL this season as well, making them very attractive to other teams across the CCHL and the team will definitely look at moving two of them.  

Sure, I suppose there is a scenario at play where Fort Erie trades one of their two top ten picks to move back in the draft and have another team do a sign and trade, but that doesn't truly appear to be something they are considering right now.  

Why would they?  

They have both Shane Wright and Matvei Michkov set to join the roster next season so there is depth coming to help.  Keifer Sherwood is almost assured to take the role of Colton Sissons on the fourth line given he leads the NHL in hits by a mile and will score between 15-20 this year.  

The Falcons are primed with depth coming next year.  

Speaking of depth, Thomas Harley's continued development means that likely Devon Toews or Jaccob Slavin will likely be available, though with Slavin's tenure as the longest serving Falcon, I don't see him being a guy that is readily available.  That likely leaves Toews looking for his next CCHL home this off-season and he's a player that can help 20 of the 22 CCHL member clubs.  

While Fort Erie has done everything they can to bolster the team this year, the Kehler Cup is the hardest trophy in sports to win and the odds are Fort Erie will fall short again.  

Either way - they'll have some decisions to make this upcoming off-season and some very good players will be available to other teams.  

Article written by Stevie Cheeseboard and originally published for the Fort Erie Gazette.  

CCHL per game revenue vs. the NHL salary cap

With the recent announcement of the NHL salary cap increasing dramatically over the next three seasons, the CCHL Commissioner and financial czar has gone to work on what that means for the CCHL.  

It is always an interesting process and balancing act between the NHL cap and the CCHL spend due to the 10 team disparity between the leagues.  The CCHL also allows 30 man rosters where the NHL allows for 23 man rosters, creating further disparity.  

The net effect is that with an average CCHL roster of 29 players, that really means that six more teams worth of salaries are added within the 22 team CCHL, thus the CCHL pays for 28 NHL teams worth of players.  

That is about the equivalent of 88% of NHL team's worth of rosters playing in the CCHL.  Conversely, when doing the calculations I've always aimed to hit that 90% mark.  If you love numbers, this blog is likely interesting to you but if they don't excite you, you probably already hate it!  

The reality is that the finances are always a delicate balancing act because we need the finances to count as a league, but not to the point where teams are dying on the vine trying to operate.  This year is different as the dispersal draft clawed back some of the expansion money teams got so I expect everyone should lose money if you added anything of significance from that dispersal draft.  

The interesting wrinkle to the NHL releasing three years worht of expected salary cap upper-limits is that it can allow us as a league to also plan where league revenues for games are going.  

Again, the balancing act here is that rebuilding teams for finances shouldn't be able to struggle for a year with a ridiculously low payroll and be financially healthy again so the losers money cannot be too high, while the winner's cash also cannot be too high.  

The risk of making the winner's money too high is that it could drive salaries wild in free agency, and we saw a bit of that with Kucherov last year, but that's more an exception to the rule as he's likely the best player that's EVER hit free agency in the CCHL.  The reality is though, he's not likely alone because I certainly can see a world where McDavid and Matthews are making $20 million in cap hits in a few years so it's something to think about.  

In any event, the key to the calculation is figuring out what the median wins/losses/SOL or OTL's are around the league to see how much on average is generated per team.  That process is just finishing up and being reviewed versus the desire to hit 90% of NHL spending.  

Much like the NHL, we'll have those numbers out shortly after discussing as an executive committee, but I thought it was pertinent given the recent NHL announcements to explain that it's being worked on and how it's all being calculated.  

If you thought it was a number out of thin air, you'd be mistaken.  I think over the years the process has become even more refined to capture the accuracy and link between NHL expense and the CCHL.  

CCHL Fundraising!

 Good day everyone,

Well, this is probably my least favorite post every two years but it's that time again where we prepare for the upcoming off-season and seasons.  

I think we have a pretty great league but unfortunately, with that, comes the cost of add-ons that other leagues do not do to take their experience to the next level.  

Unfortunately, that is not free and while I'd love to eat most of that cost myself, the director of finance in my house (the wife) says it's a hard no given how much time I invest in the league as it is to run it.  

With that said, I've been reviewing the costs associated with what we do and some have gone up - such as the simulator which has increased significantly in price for two years compared to what it has been.  I look at it as a negative and a positive.  The negative is that it costs more, but the positive is that he has not lost any subscriptions to the software and it seems to have him working harder on it as we're getting quarterly updates now rather than one or two a year.  He's still committed to it which means it'll keep going for our enjoyment.  

Could we take out the cost like the draft website?  Probably but having experienced the email draft last year when we did the dispersal, it's not something I ever want to experience again as the website keeps it moving faster while eliminating duplicated picks that slow us all down.  

Our web hosting is still a very reasonable price given what Simon T is charging to host sim leagues, so I'm happy that we are saving a bit of money on that front while fulfilling what we need to be able to run the site properly.  

Our costs (in Cdn dollars) for each for two years are below:  

So this is where I turn to the league to help finance our collective passion once again.  Understand I hate asking every two years however, it is sadly necessary.  I could do this annually but I think it would be annoying and with two years commitments, we actually save money on things like the site and the simulator.  

I'll never mandate a "it's going to cost everyone X dollars" because I'm not here to assume everyone's financial situation so I simply ask that you give what you are able to do to support the league.  If everyone gave equal dollars, it would be $22.01 Canadian but I know not everyone can or will do that.  Some will go higher to help offset what some can't while others a bit lower if they contribute at all.  

The last two times we have done this collection, we have always managed to cover the league expenses for the most part.  I did eat a bit extra for the 24-25 season out of my own pocket but I can live with that small amount, but not the whole amount.  Should we somehow collect more than the amount owed, it simply stays in the post to reduce what we could need in 2027 (The Landon Dupont draft!).  

If you can contribute, please let the Commissioner know!  We've had some pretty good support in day one of the campaign but we definitely have a ways to go yet.  

In any event, I appreciate whatever support can be provided for the league and look forward to continuing to operate what I consider the best fantasy/sim league going today.  

Thank you all for your time..........let's keep this thing going!  

State of the Loons: Future watch

 In the last State of the Loons we touched on this year's team and since it was posted Capeside clinched a playoff berth. After winning a playoff series last year for the first time our realistic goal ths year is to win multiple series. As much as we want to believe that we are Kehler cup contenders we have to stay patient as long as the Donuts and Falcons are pretty much all star teams.

We have set ourself up with the majority of our team being under 25 and hopefully ready to win multiple cups over the next 10 years with the core we have assembled. However, fear has set in around our finances going forward. With the NHL cap increasing and contracts on the rise will Capeside be in the position to hand out all these second contracts or will we have to make moves? 

As of today we have Matt Boldy, Trevor Zegras, Matty Beniers, Cole Caufield, Brock Faber, K'Andre Miller, Jake Oettinger, and Cam York all playing key roles for the Loons while on their low entry level contracts. Ideally we would be stock piling cash for the future but with Eichel (28, $10m), Werenski (27, $9.5m) and McAvoy (27, $9.5m next year) getting substantial raises we are on pace to lose $9m. 

Some good news is CCHL revenues will likely be on the rise which should help. Also, with a solid group of owners it is unlikely we will be spending $13m in a dispersal draft again. This should be one of Capeside's highest bonus money years in our history. The Loons top line of Kreider, Eichel and Boldy are all in the top 30 for CCHL scoring, with only 47 GP Faber remains in the top 5 amongst rookies, Vatrano keeps hitting anything that moves and as a team we are 5th in PP and 1st on the PK. 

What will have the most significance on franchise stability is our prospect development. I would put our top 10 prospects against anyone's in the CCHL. Them taking the next steps and becoming key contributors on our roster and allowing us to make difficult decisions will be key towards our dynasty goals.

Top 5 under 25  (GP, G, A)

1. Matt Boldy - 23 (55, 18, 27)

2. Cole Caufield - 24 (54, 26, 23)

3. Brock Faber - 22 (51, 5,15)

4. Matty Benier - 22 (56, 12, 18)

5. Trevor Zegras - 24 (31, 6, 9)

Top 10 Prospects (GP, G, A)

1. Ryan Leonard - eta 2026 (26, 23, 11)

2. Will Smith - eta 2025 (48, 8, 14)

3. Frank Nazar - eta 2025 (25, 4, 6)

4. Zeev Buium - eta 2026 (25, 6, 24)

5. Jimmy Snuggerud - eta 2026 (30, 20, 21)

6. Cole Eiserman - eta 2027 (25, 15, 8)

7. Teddy Stiga - eta 2028 (26, 10, 13)

8. Isaac Howard - eta 2026 (29, 21, 20)

9. Drew Commesso - eta 2026

10. Alex Jefferies - eta 2026 (35, 8, 15)

State of the Loons: Best Loons team yet?

 Last week Simon threw us a curveball. When sending in our lines we looked ahead a few games in order to set up our goalie rotation and were shocked to see that the Loons were about to embark on 3 games in 3 days, and overall 7games in 9 days. The initial 3 game stretch saw us matched up against the top three CCHL teams in order of points: Wisborg, Falcons and Calgary. Coming off of two straight losses to conference rivals things were looking bleak. Low and behold the Loons pulled themselves together and swept through the CCHL elite. We won't get into the following two games since we like to focus on the positives today. However after the 5th game the Loons have clinched a trip to the playoffs, tied for 2nd in the Corfield and tied for 1st in the Patrick Division.

Also during this murderous stretch Jack Eichel scored his 50th goal and 100th point. Eichel is the first Loon to accomplish both of these accomplishments not to mention in the same season. All this got us to thinking if this is the best Loons' team of all time. 

Capeside entered the CCHL in the 2018/19 season and stunningly finished 1st in the Corfield Conference and 2nd in the CCHL with 110 points, just 2 behind the Norsemen in the overall CCHL standings. After a first round bye, the Loons were embarrassingly bounced right out of the playoffs by the Falcons. Unfortunately the stats from that season are seemingly lost forever in the old website but my memory recalls that Loons team was more lucky then good. 

2020 saw the Loons make the playoffs as the 6th and final seed in the Corfield, losing in the first round to Seattle 4-2. Dubois lead the way that year for the Loons in both goals and points (27/56). 2021 was by far the worst Loons team finishing dead last in the Corfield with a measly 53 points, Mikeal Granlund led the team with a whopping 21 goals and 45 points. 2022 saw the Loons move up on spot to 10th in the Corfield with 81 points, Eichel lead the team with 30g and 67 points. 2023 brought the Loons back to the playoffs as the 5th seed with 96 pts only to be swept out of the first round by the same Seattle Reign. Joel Farabee lead the way that year with 31 goals and 68 points. And last year, 2024 , saw the Loons finish with 112 pts good for 4th in the Corfield and more importantly our first playoff series win against the same Seattle Reign, only to be swept in the second round by that Donut juggernaut. Captain Kreider lead the team in goals with 34 while Eichel put up 83 points.

With 14 games left in the 2025 season the Loons record book looks to be under attack, Granted due to an aggressive front office in previous years and a lot of player turnover during the season only points recorded in a Loons sweater have been tracked. This year has been our lowest turnover year to date which helps but both Eichel and Kreider could both be 50 goals and 100 points. Eichel, Larkin and Matthews (all Americans btw) should go down to the wire for the CCHL scoring title: 50,50, 45.

This is only a look at our own team but brings up a few questions like does less in season moves translate to team results as the Loons were by far and away the least active in our history this year? Is scoring up in the CCHL as a whole with much less parity throughout the league? 

How the Loons fair in the post season will ultimately answer the question if this is the best Capeside team yet but as far as individual stats go the answer is yes.

Capeside Loons records (minus 2019 RIP)

Goals                                         Assists                                       Points

1. Eichel       50* 2025            1. Makar      59  2024            1. Eichel        101    2025*

2. Kreider     40* 2025            2. Eichel      57  2024            2. Kreider        86    2025*

3. Kreider     34  2024            3. McAvoy    53  2024            3. Eichel         83     2024        

4. Vatrano    33* 2025            4. Boldy        52 2025*           4. Boldy          77    2025*

5. Schmaltz 32   2024            5. Eichel       51 2025*           5. Makar         73    2024

6. Farabee  31   2023            6. Hanifin      50 2025*           6. Farabee     68     2023

7. Eichel      30   2022            7. McAvoy    48 2025*           7. McAvoy      68    2024

8. McCann   28  2023            8. McAvoy    48 2022            8. Eichel          67    2022

9. Caufield   27* 2025            9. Kreider     46 2025*           9. Schmaltz    65    2024

10.Garland  26   2022           10. Eichel     41 2023            10. Eichel        64    2023