What APBA says about who should win the Finals and a prediction...

We are minutes away from game one of the 2017-18 CCHL Finals. Calgary and Reykjavik have knocked off all comers and one of them will be our next Kehler Cup Champion. 

Rather than write up a traditional series preview, I thought I would dig into the seldom-used / seldom seen "Scouting Report" that the APBA Simulator provides within the game. It is, like the rest of the game, kind of primitive and clunky. I'll do my best to break it down...

In the first image, the table is comparing REK as the visiting team and how they compare in various ratings, in various positions to the home team, CGY. In these comparisons, the home team is always assigned values of 100%. I think the values can best be interpreted by the margin between the visiting team value vs. the baseline of the 100% awarded by default to the home team. 

Goalies are not compared within this feature...

I consider three columns. ACTIVE, ACTIVE FORWARDS and ACTIVE  D-MEN. 

ACTIVE: Of the 7 categories within this rating, CGY holds the advantage in 6.
ACTIVE FORWARDS: Of the 9 categories within this rating, REK hols a slight edge by a margin of 5-4.
ACTIVE D-MEN: CGY dominates this rating, leading in 6 of 7 categories. 

Looking at the bottom section that includes, PK RATING and SHOT-BLOCKING. 

ACTIVE:  

CGY holds a large advantage in shot blocking.
REK has the advantage in rock rated players.
REK holds a slight advantage in shot blocking skills among forwards

ACTIVE FORWARDS:
REK holds an advantage in rock rated forwards and faceoffs.
CGY controls both pk and shot-blocking among forwards.

ACTIVE D-MEN:
CGY holds a massive advantage in shot-blocking.

SUMMARY:

CGY dominates the majority of offensive categories. REK has an advantage as a ROAD TEAM in the physicality of its forwards and in faceoffs. The Puffin also have the superior defensive-minded forwards of the two teams. Defensively, CGY's blueline should do well as a home team. 

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Now, let's flip the teams, REK is now considered the home team and CGY is the visiting team. 

SUMMARY: With REK as the home team, we see the CGY maintaining the advantages on the road as they did at home. It's my impression that home ice, therefore, doesn't seem to provide much of an advantage. I question that but have no evidence to really hang my hat on.

PREDICTION: Considering all of the above, I wanted to look at a few more metrics.

In the two games they played, the team split, with each winning one game. CGY beat REK 4-1 on day 73, then on day 88, REK beat CGY 3-2 in OT.

Shots on goal: CGY outshot REK over the two games by an average of 37 to 20.5, a difference of 16.5 shots per game.

Special teams: CGY went 3 out of 8 (37.5%) on the PP, REK went 1 for 5 (20.0%)

Blocked Shots: CGY averaged 4 a game, REK averaged 3 a game.

In the regular season, 

CGY was a + 225 in GF/GA.
REK was a +99 in GF/GA

On a per game basis,

CGY Goals for per game: 4.77
CGY Goals allowed per game: 2.02

REK Goals for per game: 3.55

REK Goals allowed per game: 2.34

Taking the Conference disparity into effect, here's the total regular season points for all of the playoff
teams in each conference:

|CANOSA: 638 total points
CORFIELD: 607 total points

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MY TAKE:

CGY dominated a weaker Corfield Conference while REK stayed in the thick of things in the Canosa Conference. How much were REK's numbers suppressed because they played in a tougher conference? How inflated were the Chinook's numbers because of the benefit they enjoyed competing against lesser teams?

We can't know for sure, but its safe to say had the teams flipped conference, their records and stats would've reflected the competition.

That said, the APBA Scouting Report suggests strongly that the CGY players should have an edge over REK.

How CGY wins:

Calgary's overall depth and skill should prevail over the series. CGY needs to continue to take few penalties and let its talent on the blueline slow down the Puffin attack.

How REK wins:

Continue to ride the hot play of Holtby and utilize its superiority in the physical area.

PREDICTION: CGY in six games
Holtby seems to be the best weapon and chance they have to slow down the Chinook's mighty offense. Problem is, Holtby is playing well over his disk save percentage rate by a .013 pts, which is a LOT. He's bound to regress to his disk rating of .925% sooner or later. Currently at stunning .938%, Holtby has been great. Will his elevated play continue? Time may tell...

From CCHL Operations: Deadline for Blog submissions for 17-18 Bonus year kicks in when Finals end...

From the CCHL Bonus Boy, Matt Young...

With the conclusion of the season and the playoffs nearing completion, the league office has begun to determine the bonus dollars each team is eligible for as a result of the 2016-17 season. 

While this article will not run over each financial bonus dollar, it will highlight a few of the more interesting items.

No fewer than five teams will receive the full 4.75 million dollar bonus for having perfect lineups this season; thus no lineups with a player that is ineligible to play in their lines.  Three more teams would only have one set of lines that were invalid, making it 36% of the league where only three errors in lineups took place. 

Also interesting to note that the Fort Erie rebuild yielded some nice results in terms of bonus payouts for top five rookie scoring as both Marner and Werenski placed in the top five.  Auston Matthew, Matthew Tkachuk, and Patrik Laine round out the top-five freshmen scorers this CCHL season. 

Matthews and Laine also placed within the top 40 scorers in the league, earning their teams' further cash in that category, doubling down for their teams' financial success. 

The Dayton Musicmen may have sung the blues on a lot of nights this season but it wasn't from a lack of desire.  Two Musicmen, Matt Irwin and Dan Girardi, placed in the top five for blocking shots this year which netted the Musicmen a solid 1.5 million dollars in bonus money. 

Also straight out of the not-surprising files was that the Calgary Chinook took home bonus money for finishing in the top three in both special teams categories and also earned another 3.75 million dollars for having five players in the CCHL's top 40 scorers this season. 

Look for the full results of the CCHL bonus program payouts to be released at the conclusion of the CCHL Kehler Cup final.  Remember, you have until then to get more blogs submitted as we turn the page on the season blog bonus totals at the end of the playoffs and anything written after that point is counted towards next year's total. 

Falcons look to the future...

There was no shortage of Fort Erie realtors vying for the opportunity to list the former Falcons' wingers house on the open market. 

It also appears that John Gibson will have the job in goal next year for the Falcons and that Andersen has been moved as well. 

While nobody truly knows what players will be moved to Fort Erie in this wind of change, it appears that Jason Spezza is one of them. 

He's been seen in the area checking out places to live and was also spotted at the training facility for the Falcons where we can only assume a medical was taking place. 

Surely Spezza can't be the prize acquisition of the offseason for the Falcons given his dramatic drop in play and hefty salary. 

What else can be coming to Fort Erie in what appears to be multiple trades? It's hard to say because Young wouldn't shed light on any details at this point. 

"I respect the teams in the playoffs far too much to get into it.  As soon as we can complete trade calls at the conclusion of the playoffs, I'll be willing to discuss everything.  Until then, enjoy the playoffs?  Who do you think will win this year's Kehler Cup?  Tell us in your next article," said Young of the situation. 

While fans of the Falcons are enjoying the playoffs on the CCHL network, they will no doubt be happy when they find out what the wind of change is for their home franchise. 

Until then, enjoy the Scorpions.

Fort Erie season comes to a shocking end...

Fort Erie, ON

 The Fort Erie Falcons season came to a screaming halt on Sunday evening, losing a lopsided game against the Wisborg Donuts which resulted in a four-game sweep of the 50+ win squad this year. 

The team arrived back in Fort Erie this morning from Wisborg and met with the media at the airport to discuss the loss.

“It’s a tough loss for our team.  We did so many great things this season.  I think after losing in game three the way we did, we just didn’t have anything left emotionally in that fourth game.  You can’t blow a lead like we did and lose in overtime and pretend it’s not an emotional blow.  We have so many young players that haven’t been through this before but now that they have we expect next year to be much different,” said Captain Blake Wheeler as he exited the team bus.

While being swept in the second round was not exactly ideal, we would be foolish to ignore the strides the organization has made in the last calendar year.

The Falcons were picking first overall last June and had very few players that would be so vital to this year’s success.  It was a very fast rebuild that has allowed the team to prosper this season and beyond.

That’s exactly how General Manager Matt Young sees it as well.

“If you look at where we were a year ago, it’s a vastly different situation.  We’re young and we’ve got a ton of talent at every position; with more coming in the following years.  We have two first-round picks this summer as well.  We’re in great shape.  We’ve got Chabot, Dunn and DeBrincat joining the team next year as well.  I’m excited for our future and our fans should be excited too.”

With the excitement for the future, the General Manager also did not want to ignore what happened in Wisborg.

“It’s a learning experience for a team that is just coming together.  For many of them it’s their first year here or in the league.  We’ll build off of this and be better from it.  Our hats are off to Wisborg who played a tremendous series.  We did not seem to recover after game three and it showed in game four.  Our message to the players was to simply not forget how that loss felt and use it in their offseason workouts to become better for next year.  It’s really the best piece of motivation we can give them at this point because it doesn’t feel good for anyone in the organization.”

While the playoffs have officially ended, it doesn't appear Young will waste any time retooling for next year.  While he refused to confirm anything upon the team's return from Wisborg, he did indicate he'd have more to say in the coming days about those rumours.

"Anytime you lose, it's not fun.  If you don't win you can find a way to be better and I assure you we will be better but I won't say anything further today.  It's too soon," concluded Young.

Isotopes season over in dramatic fashion

When looking at a game seven, you can look at it in many ways.  Does a team rise to the occasion or did their opponent shrink under the pressure?  In the game seven battle against the Rejkjavik Puffin the answer to that hypothetical is pretty clear, something happened in that Isotope room to cause them to crack and not rise to the efforts put forward by the Puffin.

Through the first 40 minutes, the Isotopes were outshot 24 to 7 and though they did manage to get 11 shots on net in the third it was a herculean effort by Bobrovsky that kept this game interesting as he stopped 43 of 45 shots, including 24 in the final frame, but the Isotopes lost 2-1.

The buzzer to end the game was like a dagger to the hearts of ‘topes fans everywhere, the dream of challenging for the cup over before it even really started.

Perhaps the most upsetting part was that Springfield held a 3-1 series lead and watched it slide away by being outplayed three games in a row.  “I am not going to lie; that (the series lose) was not what I was hoping for.  We had the series and we just needed to close it out and we couldn’t.  We took our foot off the gas and the Puffin made us pay”, said a visibly upset GM Stacey before adding, “That isn’t to take anything away from the Puffin, we wanted to avoid them in the first round for this very reason, they have the ability to shut you down whenever they decide to.”

Now the team is left with questions about the future and wondering who will be around for next season and beyond.  Immediate concerns are free agents and who may be signed using the single UFA rule and what the lines could look like.  The obvious outcome of this loss is that even though the Isotopes may have exceeded expectations this year, there is still room for improvement.



Springfield times

Miners Season in Review

CANADIAN PRESS (Sudbury, ON)

No unreal expectations, a lot of players getting moved, young prospects gaining valuable experience, but not without some bumps and bruises along the way. Ever since General Manager Terry James spoke about the pain that was coming to the team and to fans, it has been a constant point of conversation especially in the media.

Now with the season over many fans will want to know whether all this pain will be worth it in the end and how much longer will it last? There is no telling how long this rebuild will last, because there are certain aspects the Miners cannot control and will need some luck, like whether they get the first overall pick in the draft lottery.

That did not happen.  In fact, the news was not good for the Miners on Wednesday night.  They actually dropped three spots in the lottery from 3rd overall and will now pick 6th overall.

However, despite the results of the draft lottery, this season cannot be seen at as a total loss, because the organization took steps to make sure that it was not.  Acquiring prospects and draft picks that will be vital to the rebuild was the goal to start the year, and in that the Miners appear to have succeeded.

Here is the Good, the Bad and the Ugly of the Miners first season in Sudbury.


THE GOOD

Aaron Ekblad
Ekblad was finally healthy this year, and played in all 82 games.  At times this year, he showed flashes of greatness this and had a very respectable 24 points for a team that struggled to score most nights.   He played close to 25 minutes a night, usually matched up against the other team’s top lines.   He was also a fixture on the power play and penalty kill units.  He is a player that the Miners are looking to build around.  His future looks promising, as long as he avoids injury and continues to develop.


Organization Depth
The Miners stated that prior to last years’ CCHL Entry Draft that they had a plan to acquire assets and build the team through the draft.   They followed through on this promise through out the year and have over 20 picks in the next two entry draft, with half of them being in the first three rounds.  Many of the high priced and under performing veterans were jettisoned out of Sudbury for young and picks.  Their depth and talent pool will only get better.  The future looks bright in the Nickel City.



THE BAD

Goaltending
Yes, you can also blame the defence for all their giveaways and horrible coverage in front of the net, but both Jake Allen and Ben Bishop didn't play well enough consistently to win some games for the Miners. Both goalies were near the bottom of the league in both GAA and save percentage.  The late addition of Ryan Miller, did not fare any better.



Injuries
The Miners were among the league leaders with over 300 man-games lost to injuries.   For a team that had little CCHL depth, losing such important roster players like Darnell Nurse for extended periods of time put lesser players in more prominent roles.  This hurt the Miners……no pun intended.


THE UGLY

Lack of Offense
The Miners were the only one of two CCHL teams to average under two goals scored per game (Dayton was the other).  Their leading scorer, Tobias Reider, only had 54 points.   That is less than half of what CCHL leading scorer Sidney Crosby had (136 points).  The Miners will have to find a way to put more pucks in the net, if they look to climb out of the basement of the CCHL.


Power Play
The Miners finished the season with the worst power play in the league with 11.3%.  Compare that to top-ranked Calgary, which ran at 21.9%.   For a team that struggled to score goals 5v5, they needed the power play to capitalize on chances to stay in games.   Simply put, this did not happen often enough.


Despite not making the playoffs, this season showed great promise for the future.   The Miners expected pain and that is what they got.   However, building blocks have been put in place that offer some hope for a quick turnaround.   The big question now is what GM Terry James does this off-season, that will dictate if they continue to trend up.

Stay tuned.

CCHL Playoffs Are Underway!

The opening night of the 2017-18 CCHL playoffs got off to an exciting start with Hamilton, Rejkyavik, Wisborg, and Halifax all hosting first-round playoff games. Let's jump in and see how these games turned out.

CANOSA CONFERENCE:

Minnesota (#6 seed) at Hamilton (#3 seed): The Tigers' Patrik Kane gave the Tigers a quick 1-0 lead with his first goal of the playoffs just 69 seconds into the opening period. The Norsemen were quick to respond with Jake Guentzel scoring for the visitors to tie the game at one goal each. Before the first period ended, the Tiger's Boone Jenner got into the act with a nifty wrist shot over Norsemen's Antii Raanta's left shoulder to give the home team a 2-1 lead heading into the first intermission. There was just one goal in the second period, scored by defenseman Erik Karlsson with just 16 seconds left in the period to give Hamilton a 3-1 lead. Roman Polak got the Norsemen within a goal but the Tigers shut it down the rest of the way for a 3-2 win.

Final: Hamilton - 3, Minnesota - 2

Springfield (#5 seed) at Rejkyavik (#4 seed): A single point separated the Isotopes and the Puffin in the regular season and no one expects a short series from these two rivals. The visitors got off strong start outshooting the host Puffin 17-6 in the first period and enjoying a 2-1 lead at the intermission. Three goals from Makin, Turris, and Tkachuk lifted the Isotopes to a stunning 5-1 lead as the team finished forty minutes of play. REK finally found their game in the third, scoring three times to make it a one-goal game, but that's as close as they would get tonight.

Final: Springfield - 5, Rejkyavik - 4


CORFIELD CONFERENCE:

Portland (#6 seed) at Wisborg (#3 seed): The night's most lopsided contest of the evening took place across the globe in Wisborg as the Donuts started a bit slowly and didn't score until the midway mark of the first period. Make no mistake, though - the Donuts dominated the Owls with 2 goals in the first period and two more in the second period. Shots after 40 minutes were 32-12 and the 4-0 lead Wisborg enjoyed wasn't ever in doubt as the tandem in nets of Lehner and Bernier blanked the guests from Portland, 4-0. Wisborg lost Lehner for game two with a lower-body injury. 

Final: Wisborg - 4, Portland - 0

Niagara Falls (#5 seed) at Halifax (#4 seed): On paper, a series that should go the Hammerheads way, but they sure don't play the games on paper, do they? No, they don't! The Thunder played a patient game tonight and with single goals in each of the three periods, combined with a perfect performance from netminders Roberto Luongo - who had to leave the game with 4 minutes left in the first period due to taking a shot off the side of his head - and was replaced by Petr Mrazek, who stopped all 23 shots he faced for the shutout win.

Final: Niagara Falls 3, Halifax - 0