What APBA says about who should win the Finals and a prediction...

We are minutes away from game one of the 2017-18 CCHL Finals. Calgary and Reykjavik have knocked off all comers and one of them will be our next Kehler Cup Champion. 

Rather than write up a traditional series preview, I thought I would dig into the seldom-used / seldom seen "Scouting Report" that the APBA Simulator provides within the game. It is, like the rest of the game, kind of primitive and clunky. I'll do my best to break it down...

In the first image, the table is comparing REK as the visiting team and how they compare in various ratings, in various positions to the home team, CGY. In these comparisons, the home team is always assigned values of 100%. I think the values can best be interpreted by the margin between the visiting team value vs. the baseline of the 100% awarded by default to the home team. 

Goalies are not compared within this feature...

I consider three columns. ACTIVE, ACTIVE FORWARDS and ACTIVE  D-MEN. 

ACTIVE: Of the 7 categories within this rating, CGY holds the advantage in 6.
ACTIVE FORWARDS: Of the 9 categories within this rating, REK hols a slight edge by a margin of 5-4.
ACTIVE D-MEN: CGY dominates this rating, leading in 6 of 7 categories. 

Looking at the bottom section that includes, PK RATING and SHOT-BLOCKING. 

ACTIVE:  

CGY holds a large advantage in shot blocking.
REK has the advantage in rock rated players.
REK holds a slight advantage in shot blocking skills among forwards

ACTIVE FORWARDS:
REK holds an advantage in rock rated forwards and faceoffs.
CGY controls both pk and shot-blocking among forwards.

ACTIVE D-MEN:
CGY holds a massive advantage in shot-blocking.

SUMMARY:

CGY dominates the majority of offensive categories. REK has an advantage as a ROAD TEAM in the physicality of its forwards and in faceoffs. The Puffin also have the superior defensive-minded forwards of the two teams. Defensively, CGY's blueline should do well as a home team. 

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Now, let's flip the teams, REK is now considered the home team and CGY is the visiting team. 

SUMMARY: With REK as the home team, we see the CGY maintaining the advantages on the road as they did at home. It's my impression that home ice, therefore, doesn't seem to provide much of an advantage. I question that but have no evidence to really hang my hat on.

PREDICTION: Considering all of the above, I wanted to look at a few more metrics.

In the two games they played, the team split, with each winning one game. CGY beat REK 4-1 on day 73, then on day 88, REK beat CGY 3-2 in OT.

Shots on goal: CGY outshot REK over the two games by an average of 37 to 20.5, a difference of 16.5 shots per game.

Special teams: CGY went 3 out of 8 (37.5%) on the PP, REK went 1 for 5 (20.0%)

Blocked Shots: CGY averaged 4 a game, REK averaged 3 a game.

In the regular season, 

CGY was a + 225 in GF/GA.
REK was a +99 in GF/GA

On a per game basis,

CGY Goals for per game: 4.77
CGY Goals allowed per game: 2.02

REK Goals for per game: 3.55

REK Goals allowed per game: 2.34

Taking the Conference disparity into effect, here's the total regular season points for all of the playoff
teams in each conference:

|CANOSA: 638 total points
CORFIELD: 607 total points

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MY TAKE:

CGY dominated a weaker Corfield Conference while REK stayed in the thick of things in the Canosa Conference. How much were REK's numbers suppressed because they played in a tougher conference? How inflated were the Chinook's numbers because of the benefit they enjoyed competing against lesser teams?

We can't know for sure, but its safe to say had the teams flipped conference, their records and stats would've reflected the competition.

That said, the APBA Scouting Report suggests strongly that the CGY players should have an edge over REK.

How CGY wins:

Calgary's overall depth and skill should prevail over the series. CGY needs to continue to take few penalties and let its talent on the blueline slow down the Puffin attack.

How REK wins:

Continue to ride the hot play of Holtby and utilize its superiority in the physical area.

PREDICTION: CGY in six games
Holtby seems to be the best weapon and chance they have to slow down the Chinook's mighty offense. Problem is, Holtby is playing well over his disk save percentage rate by a .013 pts, which is a LOT. He's bound to regress to his disk rating of .925% sooner or later. Currently at stunning .938%, Holtby has been great. Will his elevated play continue? Time may tell...