CCHL POWER RANKINGS FOR 1/10/20...

The trade deadline is approaching and after a flurry of moves, we present our second installment of the CCHL Power Rankings. The top two teams (FOR & SIB) stay the same, SPR & HAM trade places, SEA moves up two places and three teams (GEO, ISL & VIC) are fighting for their playoff lives. It should be an exciting couple weeks until the trade deadline and then beyond as teams jockey for playoff positioning, especially the coveted first-round byes.


POWER RANKING FOR 1/11/20:

1. FOR - 16
2. SIB - 19
3. HAM - 36
4. SUD - 37
5. SPR - 38
6. REK - 45
7. DAY - 49
8. GIL - 60
9. CGY - 66
10. SEA - 70
11. GEO - 76
12. CAP - 78
13. ISL - 80
14. VIC- 82

OBSERVATIONS:

*VICTOR, VICTOR: VIC seems in the driver's seat in the Canosa Conference. The Ronin hold a three-point lead over ISL and GEO. Don't look now, but the CCHL's reigning champions are just two points behind GEO & ISL...

*THE END IS NEAR? The playoff teams may be known in the Corfield Conference. Seattle has a six-point lead and a game in hand over Dartmouth. Six points is a pretty big margin to overcome at this point of the season.

*THESE TEAMS ARE HOT: HAM, SIB, REK & SPR...

*THESE TEAMS ARE NOT: POR, HIL, GEO & DRT...

*DID YOU KNOW? In the last ten games, of the current playoff teams in the Canosa Conference, no team has a losing record. Conversely, in the Corfield Conference, three teams have winning records, while three do not.

CCHL 2019-2020 Mid-Season Awards Nominees

Hello, sports fans. Today I am coming to you from warm Novosibirsk, where the locals are tanning in this warm 32 degrees F (0 Celsius) weather. I had a chance to meet with local sportswriters about the current CCHL season. We will be looking at early nominees for most of the major awards this CCHL season. 

The voting is based on nominations by the Siberian Hockey Writers Association...but mostly by Kate Upton. While there were many viable candidates, the nominees below were chosen based on how they have performed thus far, as we are a little more than halfway through the CCHL season. With that, let's get to the awards and the mid-season nominees!

Lady Byng - given to the most gentlemanly player. These guys are practically nuns!

 Matthew Barzal - ISL: 6 PIM in 49 games
 Jakub Vrana - MIN: 2 PIM in 48 games
 TJ Brodie - POR: 4 PIM in 47 games
 Brandon Saad - VIC: 2 PIM in 48 games
 and finally, William Karlsson - SUD: 0 PIM in 40 games! "Excuse me, I don't mean to bump into you, but would you mind letting me pass so I can score this goal?"

Selke - given to the best defensive forward

 Gabriel Landeskog - ISL: tied for the league lead with a +20, while scoring 56 points in 48 games
 Jonathan Huberdeau - SPR: tied with Landeskog, scoring at almost a PPG
 TJ Oshie - SPR: the other part of that fabulous line for Springfield, is a +19 with 52 points in 49 games
 William Karlsson - SPR: completing out the trio is William Karlsson, who is tied for 2nd in the league at +19 with 63 points in 49 games
 Mark Stone - SIB: Siberia's top winger is a +14 while averaging a PPG

Calder - given to the best rookie (min 20 games played in NHL 2017-18 season to qualify)

 Elias Petterson - WIS: The Swedish wiz has put up 30 points in 47 games for last year's runner up Donuts
 Jordan Binnington - GEO: The rookie netminder has 12 wins and a .901 S% for the rebuilding Millers
 Anthony Cirelli - LAS: The young 2-way forward has 18 points in only 29 games
 Devon Toews - MIN: This young defenseman has not been able to consistently be in the lineup, but when he does, he is a dynamo, scoring 15 points in 19 games
 Zach Aston-Reese - GIL: The only nominee with 2 last names, he has quietly put up 26 points in 43 games for the Sharks

Norris - given to the best defenseman
 Brent Burns - SIB: the Siberia rearguard leads the league with 69 points in 50 games

Unrestricted
 Morgan Rielly - FOR: the slick skating defenseman leads the Falcons with 58 points in 50 games
 Jacob Trouba - VIC: this tough, 2-way dman is also having a great year, scoring 55 points in 47 games
 Ryan McDonagh - WIS: the veteran defender is second on his team in scoring with 54 points in 47 games
 Mattias Ekholm - SEA: the stalwart defenseman is also second on his team in scoring with 52 points in 47 games

Vezina - given to the best goaltender

 Ben Bishop - SPR: The veteran netminder has been traded, but he is helping lead one of the best teams, Springfield, with a league leading .916 S%
 Pekka Rinne - DAY: the big, Finnish netminder has helped Dayton be one of the best this year, leading the league in wins with 30
 John Gibson - FOR: this unsung hero in net has backstopped one of the best defensive teams this year, with a league leading 2.73 GAA
 Frederik Andersen - SUD: Frederik has been solid for Sudbury, helping them win games and is currently 3rd in the league with a 2.82 GAA
 Andrei Vasilevskiy - HAM: this perennial Vezina candidate is having another solid season and is currently 2nd in the league with 28 wins

Jennings - given to the team/goalies with the fewest goals against thus far

 DAY: currently sit atop the league with 136 goals against
 SPR & SUD: tied for 2nd with only 141 goals against
 FOR: in 4th place with 145 goals against
 CLG & GEO: in 5th place with 147 goals against

And finally, we have the grand-daddy of the awards, the Hart Trophy, given to the player who is the most valuable to his team

 Connor McDavid - SIB: the young captain has taken this team on his shoulders and has helped them to the top of the Canosa conference, with 78 points in 48 games
 Patrik Kane - HAM: the veteran winger is leading the surging Tigers (who are currently 2nd in the Canosa conference) with 68 points in 50 games
 John Gibson - FOR: the young netminder has backstopped the Falcons into a tie for 1st overall in the league, and leads the league with a 2.73 GAA
 William Karlsson - SPR: the young center is leading Springfield and making people notice with 63 points in 49 games
 Pekka Rinne - DAY: the Finnish wall has helped make Dayton the best defensive team in the league

Unrestricted

Well sports fans, there you have it, the mid-season nominees for the coveted CCHL awards. Come back at the end of year to see who Kate Upton...I mean the Siberian Hockey Writers Association votes for these awards. Until then, stay cold!

Trade Analysis: Who is making trades?: Don’t buy a house in Fort Erie

From time to time I look at the transactions page and wonder what the heck is going on? Often there is a flurry of trades that I had no idea happened until well after the trades have occurred. I don’t consider myself super active in the trade market, but I do think that I am fairly involved, it got me to wondering. How active am I compared to others? Welcome to the first of a dive in the trade analysis of the CCHL.

I have tried this analysis in the past and got hung up on tracking team relocations and tying existing teams to previous teams that were on the disk, to deal with this I chose to go back only to the start of the 2015 season. There were still some relocations that happened, but it at least allowed for me to handle it without having to go back and
spend significant time wondering who the acronym was and then what team that was now. I just used Excel to search and filter through the data to look for only trades and then break it down by teams trading for and to.

The result is that there were 796 trades from the start of the 2015 season (immediately after the waiver) and Jan 6th, 2020. That is a lot of moves that Bill and co. had to deal with, so thank you, everyone, involved! Getting a total number was fairly easy and likely not worth a blog so I wanted to get a better idea of the teams making moves.



The end result is not really shocking, Fort Erie with 188 moves and Dayton with 187 are well ahead of the pack. Springfield sits almost exactly in the middle, so I guess I was accurate in my assessment of my activity level.

Where does your team sit? Is it where you expected? Are you like me and get very nervous about making the wrong move and have held back?

Next up, with all those trades….who are the most frequent partners? There are a variety of approaches in the league with teams built on trades and through the draft? I wonder if there is a correlation with team success and trades?

Good luck with the upcoming trading deadline!

One caveat, I have no done a deep dive to look at the data and make sure it is all right. My tests seem to indicate that the numbers are true which surprised me for some teams but please let me know if you see anything that looks way off.

Springfield (special thanks to Matt for the title)

Georgetown Millers Prospects Mid­Season Update

Georgetown Millers Prospects

Mid­Season Update

When the first look at the Millers prospects was published in the early part of the season, this was their top 10:



1. Ilya Samsonov
2. Ty Smith
3. Tyler Madden
4. Calen Addison
5. Karl Henriksson
6. Samuel Fagemo
7. Oskari Laaksonen
8. David Farrance
9. Janne Kuokonnen
10. Dustin Wolf

Since then Samsonov, Addison and Wolf have been traded in win­now deals that have turned
out badly as the club, even at full­strength, was languishing in the 6 spot in the Canosa
Conference. Losing huge sums of money and unable to coax any consistent winning streak, the
decision to rebuild was made a couple of weeks before Christmas when Brayden Schenn was
dealt to Victoria. Captain Roman Josi was dispatched to Dayton for a large haul of prospects
reflected in the updated list below, and other trades have followed that have restored the Millers
prospect depth.

11. Alex Newhook, C ­ The centerpiece of the Josi trade, Newhook has 12 points in 15
NCAA games as a true freshman. Outlook: 2nd line forward at minimum and special
teams ace.
12. Ty Smith, D ­ 17 points in 21 WHL games is a comedown from previous seasons, and
he has 3 points in 6 WJC games to date. Outlook: top 4 Dman and PP stalwart.
13. Rasmus Kupari, C ­ A serious knee injury in the WJC ends his season early. Was
keeping his head above water as a 19 year­old in the AHL with 6 goals in 27 games.
Outlook: Top 6 forward.

14. Owen Tippett, RW ­ 13 goals in 37 AHL games as a 20 year­old. Pure sniper still
rounding out his overall game. Outlook: 2nd line RW/PP stud.
15. Tyler Madden, C ­ 26 points in 19 NCAA games as a sophomore. Well­rounded game
and improved skating enhances chance of a top 6 role in the pros. Outlook: Elite 3rd line
C/special teams star or above average 2nd line C.
16. Martin Fehevary, D ­ 20 year­old in first AHL season has 11 points in 31 games. Isn’t
splashy and probably not a top pairing future, but has a solid all­around game Outlook:
2nd pairing Dman with 40 point upside.
17. Alexi Heponiemi, C ­ Biggest wild card in this group; skill is elite but is tiny and first AHL
season has been poor with 8 points in 30 games. Outlook: 2nd line Forward, but huge
bust risk.
18. Ian Mitchell, D ­ NCAA rearguard has 13 points in 19 games.No outstanding traits
physically or skill­wise but is intelligent and very good with the puck. Outlook: 2nd pairing
Dman.
19. Carl Grundstrom, RW ­ Injuries have hampered his progress but his game draws
comparisons to Red Wings legend Tomas Holmstrom. Outlook: 2nd line winger and PP
stud.
20. Jett Woo, D ­ In contrast to many of the Millers blueline prospects, Woo is a bruiser who
has the skill to contribute 30 points a season. Outlook: Shutdown Defender with offense.

Honorable Mentions:

Samuel Fagemo, RW ­ Swedish winger has had an amazing WJC with 11 points in 6 games.
No jaw­dropping skills but he finds ways to shoot the puck and score. Outlook: Middle 6 winger
and PP contributor.

Elvis Merzilkins, G ­ 25 year­old in first North American season. Probably not a star, but should
be an average goalie most years. Outlook: 1B/Backup Goaltender

David Farrance, D ­ 22 points, including 12 goals, in 17 NCAA games. Breathtaking skater and
if the offense translates to the pros he could be a star. Outlook: 3rd pairing Dman/PP specialist.

SPR Prospects at World Juniors

Been done by others but Springfield wanted to get in on the action.  It is interesting to think your prospects are great and wonder how many are in the Junior tournament but then only end up with a handful.  Either way, there are some interesting potential Isotopes that are representing their countries.

Antti Saarela (W - Finland – NHL Draft 123rd overall by Chicago/125th overall by Springfield)  -  Saarela plays a fearless style of game and isn’t afraid to get his nose dirty, he is a great skater who can create offensive opportunities because of his speed and plays a reliable defensive game as well.

Moritz Seider (D - Germany – NHL Draft 6th overall by Detroit/17th overall by Springfield)
Springfield’s top pick in the 2019 draft, the big German defenseman has endeared himself to the locals overseas, where he has matched his great skating and skill with a physical edge that gets Topes fans roaring in the stands.

Martin Has (D- Czech Republic – NHL Draft 153rd overall by Washington/204th overall by Springfield) - Hugo creates offense in the modern style of NHL defensemen: jumping into the rush, taking shots from in close, and always being a passing option. His slapshot isn't the booming slapper that everyone loves, but the release is good, and he doesn't need to bomb the top corners if he can keep it low for tips and deflections.

Olivier Rodrigue (G – Canada – 2018 NHL Draft 62nd overall by Edmonton/36th overall by Springfield) - Agile goaltender with good reflexes and the ability to stay poised when under pressure. He’ll need some time in the minors before being CCHL ready.

Barrett Hayton (C – Canada – 2018 NHL Draft 5th overall by Arizona/11th overall by Fort Erie)
Hayton has been named Team Canada’s captain for the World Junior Championship. someone who does a lot of things well. He can score with an excellent shot. He’s a good passer. He has some of the best hands in this draft. He can kill penalties and isn’t afraid to forecheck the heck out of you. He’s relentless in his own end.

Springfield is looking forward to seeing what the young guys can do for the team in the near future....and drafting some eligible players to join.

Springfield Times

AROUND THE CCHL: POWER RANKINGS RETURN!!!

Today we bring back our weekly power rankings, in a modified form of what we used to publish a few years ago.

The rankings will target the top twelve teams each week and ranking them in the following categories:

1. Winning percentage: this is weighed twice as much as the rest of the categories are. It's all about winning in the CCHL those teams that get their players to "over-perform" due to effective line setting are rewarded. 

2. Goals For rank

3. Goals Against rank

4. Power Play %

5. Penalty Killing %

The formula I'm using, as I did in the past, is...

The ranking of WIN% X 2 + the ranking of GF+GA+PP%+PK% = Total raw score.

I then rank the teams from 1-12, based on their raw score. The lower the score a team has the better.

In some weeks, due to ties in winning percentages, there may be more than twelve teams listed in the power rankings.

(I'll do this every weekend, time permitting...)

POWER RANKING FOR 1/4/20:

1. Fort Erie - 15
2. Siberia - 27
3. Springfield - 37
4. Hamilton - 39
5. Sudbury - 40
6. Reykjavik - 41
7. Dayton - 42
8. Gillam - 60
9. Calgary - 70
10. Capeside - 76
11. Georgetown- 77
12. Seattle - 79

OBSERVATIONS: 

*DON PAULO PATEA CULO: The Canosa Conference dominates the first six positions with five teams represented. Dayton, 7th best overall, is just a few points out of 4th and only five points out of third overall. But, for this week, Canosa Conference is rocking...

*HEY, WHAT ABOUT US??? Three other teams caught my eye but didn't qualify for this week's rankings based on their lower winning %. Long Island and Victoria are both tied with Georgetown for the last playoff spot in the Canosa Conference. Graded out, the Express earn 70 pts., which would put them in a tie for 9th with Calgary. The Ronin earned 83 pts, which would've left them on the outside looking in. In the Corfield Conference, Dartmouth sits a single point behind Seattle in the standings and when graded, earn 76 pts., which would've tied them for 10th with the Loons. Keep an eye on all three of these teams and don't be surprised if one or more breaks into next week's power rankings.

*FORT ERIE IS GOOD. SERIOUSLY. The Falcons are the creme de la cream of the CCHL. Strong across all five categories, they are no worse than top five in each. Let's be honest, Fort Erie is so good, we should just pack it in and get ready for baseball. (Fun Fact: Mr. Young is good at that, too!) The Falcons should have no trouble winning their first CCHL Champions Cup in a couple months. Amiright? :)

*GOOD THINGS HAPPEN IN THREE'S: There's an interesting battle in the Canosa between Siberia, Hamilton, and Springfield, three of the top four teams in the CCHL based on the power rankings. Looking at the rest of the schedule, I wanted to see how difficult each of their schedules look. Looking at the top six teams in winning percentage (FOR, SIB, DAY, HAM, REK & SPR,) this is how it looks for the trio of terrific teams in the Canosa.

# of games vs. (FOR, SIB, DAY, HAM, REK & SPR,)

Springfield Isotopes have 7 games...
Hamilton Tigers have 7 games...
Siberia Icecats have 9 games...

Don't be surprised if those two additional games the Icecates have to play against the league's best wind up making a difference at the end of the regular season standings, playoff seedings, first-round byes, etc... FUN SHIT!!!

See you next week!

Bill (I need more offense) Corfield

If the Playoffs started today...

If the Playoffs started today...

It's fun to look ahead and see how our postseason might look.

Last year, in the Canosa Conference, the following teams, by rank, made the playoffs:

1) MIN- 112 pts.
2) HAM- 101
3) GEO- 98
4) SPR- 98
5) SUD- 96
6) ISL- 89

And in the Corfield Conference, these were the playoff teams:

1) CAP- 110 pts.
2) WIS- 100
3) POR- 94
4) CGY- 91
5) DAY- 89
6) FOR- 89

Compared to this season's current standings:

 Canosa Conference teams by rank:

1) SIB
2) HAM
3) SPR
4) REK
5) SUD
6) GEO

And in the Corfield Conference: 

1) FOR
2) DAY
3) GIL
4) CGY
5) CAP
6) SEA

*Barring an improvement in the second half of the season, MIN, ISL, WIS & POR wouldn't return to the playoffs after appearing last season.

*Six teams would have missed playoffs in both seasons. (DRT, NIA, PAR, VIC, LAS & HIL...)

*Of the four teams that received first-round byes (last year and this year's projected), only one, the Hamilton Tigers would've have earned one in each season.

*Teams have roughly 13 games left until the 2029 CCHL Trade Deadline goes into effect, which allows plenty of time for general managers to address issues their teams have or sell-off spare parts that may be heading to unrestricted free agency after the season ends. There's always a few blockbuster type deals where some teams surprise us.

*Currently, there are several teams on the outside of the playoffs but within five points of capturing a post-season berth.

Who will the sellers be? Who will the buyers be?

Who will fall out of a playoff berth and who might climb into one?

Time will tell...