Saturday, July 11, 2020

I Wanna Get Lost in Your Rock ‘ n Roll and Draft Away (SEA)



As we all know any sports league that drafts persons of high school and college age has it down to an exact science. In other words every player drafted will make the league and have a career reflecting their drafted position. Thus all #1 picks will be perennial All-Stars and retire with Hall of Fame statistics some 15-20 years after being drafted…..what’s that you say…it isn’t an exact science some #1 picks will never live up to their hype and late round or even last overall picks may forge out a nice little career in the league….well what do you know.
With that in mind let’s take a quick look at the most recently completed CCHL amateur draft.
For the purpose of this exercise we will look at the 22 1st Round picks made by the CCHL teams and compare them to their projected draft position from various sources.
The comparison was done for the entire CCHL draft but there were certain factors that limit the “accuracy” for later round picks.
First many sources have limited draft rankings thus a player chosen 225th overall in the CCHL would not be found on many if any rankings lists. There were 7 sources used with 2 of those ranking 300 draft eligible prospects while one only ranked the top 31 or enough to cover the 1st Round of the NHL.
Second Youtube videos or message boards from hockey related websites were not used. Not that there are not credible lists from persons who follow the sport but rather there are numerous lists that vary in number of picks or prospects they cover. Also determining which lists are credible (i.e. not a “fanboy” list, or 1st time person has made one) would require hours and hours of time that this beautiful bastard does not have.
Finally the NHL’s Central Scouting list and any other sources that breakup prospects into different categories or do not create one list, regardless of length, were excluded. This was done to keep things simplistic as does the 8th ranked European skater fall ahead or behind the 13th ranked North American skater. Does the #2 ranked RW slot in ahead of the #4 ranked C or the #3 ranked D?
With all that being said below is the 1st Round of the CCHL draft compared to an aggregate ranking from 7 other sources. Ultimately we will see how the CCHL’s collective GM knowledge is when the NHL makes their picks to see how closely our selections align with theirs.
Name
CCHL Pick
Aggregate
Ranking
CCHL Team
Alexis
Lafreniere
1
1.1
CGY
Tim
Stuzle
2
3.3
CAP
Lucas
Raymond
3
5.0
WIS
Quinton
Byfield
4
2.1
FOR
Jamie
Drysdale
5
6.1
FOR(2)
Marco
Rossi
6
5.1
LIE
Cole
Perfetti
7
7.1
SUD
Alexander
Holtz
8
7.3
HAM
Jake
Sanderson
9
10.3
SIB
Seth
Jarvis
10
14.9
GEO
Yaroslav
Askarov
11
11.4
SIB(2)
Anton
Lundell
12
9.7
CGY(2)
Dylan
Holloway
13
15.6
SUD(2)
Jack
Quinn
14
14.7
POR
Rodion
Amirov
15
16.0
VIC
Connor
Zary
16
18.6
MOS
Dawson
Mercer
17
15.9
SEA
Kaiden
Guhle
18
21.0
TAM
Mavrik
Bourque
19
20.9
SPR
Jan
Mysak
20
25.2
POR(2)
Hendrix
Lapierre
21
27.1
SUD(3)
Jacob
Perreault
22
25.7
CAP(2)


Looking at the chart a few things to note.
One can ignore the decimal number and round up or down accordingly if they wish but it was kept in just to reflect the actual average ranking.
** Jan Mysak appeared on only 6 lists. It was the only list that ranked just one round (31) of prospects
Nothing deviates too much in the top 9 picks of the draft, with only Raymond two spots higher and Byfield two spots lower from CCHL picks and the composite rankings.
As to be expected there starts to be a little deviation as we get further along in the draft.
#10 Seth Jarvis chosen about 5 spots higher than his aggregate
#12 Anton Lundell selected a couple spots lower than his aggregate
#13 Dylan Holloway the opposite of Lundell as Holloway was selected about 2-3 spots higher
#16 Connor Zary like Holloway chosen about 2-3 spots higher
#18 Kaiden Guhle like Zary and Holloway chosen above his aggregate by 3 spots
#20 Jan Mysak who was only listed on 6 source rankings went about 5 picks higher
#21 Hendrix Lapierre the biggest deviation in the 1st round being chosen about 6 spots higher
#22 Jacob Perreault the final pick of the CCHL 1st Round is about 4 spots higher than his aggregate.

Of course in the CCHL teams trade away their draft picks like Halloween candy so quite often you have teams with multiple picks in a round. This year 7 1st round picks were traded resulting in 6 teams having multiple picks in Round 1 (Calgary, Fort Erie, Siberia, Sudbury, Portland and Capeside) with 1 of those, Sudbury, having 3 picks.
Having multiple picks in a round can lead to teams making the 2nd or 3rd pick in a round for a reason other than the perceived “best player available”. A team may pick a player a little earlier than projected in order to add depth to a position where they have few prospects. They may choose to use their extra picks on a player who they may have seen play or will have a chance to see play. A GM may also be willing to use a pick on a boom or bust type player since they have already added a couple of “safe” players with their other picks in that round.
This is not to say that was the case in Round 1 however any or all of the above may have been a GM’s criteria when making their picks.
Sudbury has already traded away one of the 3 players they drafted in the 1st Rd sending Dylan Holloway to Amos. Sudbury and Amos might have already discussed and agreed to a deal leading to Sudbury selecting Holloway rather than a different prospect with the 13th overall pick. Deals such as this would or could have impacted where a player was chosen.
One thing to note is that with no NHL draft having occurred GM’s in the CCHL may not have chosen the players they did as they may have rather preferred to select one chosen by their favorite NHL team.
It will be interesting to see if trades start to occur in earnest come later this year after the NHL draft concludes. Some CCHL GM’s may try to pry away prospects from other CCHL teams because that player was chosen by their favorite NHL team and they were not fortunate enough to have selected them in the CCHL draft.
Until then……

Millers post-draft Prospect Rankings



After some serious wheeling and dealing the Millers halved their 2020 draft picks from a high of 18 down to 9, with the lowest pick being #76 overall. Georgetown ended up drafting 7 forwards and 2 defensemen. The club had hoped to add a Goalie with a 3rd or 4th round pick but none of the ‘keepers the team had targeted in that range were available when their picks came up.
The updated prospect list will be presented both numerically and by position.
Bold indicates 2020 Draft pick                                         *indicates is included on 2020-21 roster
Top 20 Prospects
1. Alex Newhook
2. Arthur Kaliyev
3. Barrett Hayton
4. Ty Smith
5. Tyler Madden
6. Joel Farrabee
7. Ian Mitchell
8. Seth Jarvis
9. Jan Jenik
10. Brendan Brisson
11. Martin Fehervary
12. Lukas Dostal
13. Samuel Fagemo
14. Helge Grans
15. Marat Khusnutdinov
16. Martin Chromiak
17. Jesse Ylonen
18. Andrew Peeke
19. Antonni Honka
20. Blake Murray
G                                                                            G                                 
Lucas Dostal
Mitchell Gibson
Zachary Emond

D
Ty Smith
Ian Mitchell
Martin Fehervary
Helge Grans
Andrew Peeke*
Michael Anderson
Antonni Honka
Peter Dilibertore

C
Alex Newhook
Barrett Hayton*
Tyler Madden
Brendan Brisson
Marat Khusnutdinov
Blake Murray

W
Arthur Kaliyev
Joel Farabee*
Seth Jarvis
Jan Jenik
Samuel Fagemo
Jesse Ylonen
Martin Chromiak
Tyler Tullio


Sudbury Miners 2020 CCHL Draft Review




CANADIAN PRESS (Sudbury, ON):

Did the Sudbury Miners find some prospect gold, with the draft being held right in the heart of the Nickel City??
With the 2020 CCHL Entry Draft now in the books, that’s the question that the collective media and fans of the Sudbury Miners will be asking General Manager Terry James in the years to come.
James offered up a quick summary to reporters this past weekend before the summer holidays and gave a quick review on how he felt his team did during this years’ draft.
“We’re very pleased and excited,” James said.  “We drafted players they we feel can be real contributors to our team and be to compete for a job sooner rather than later.  Others, we feel will take some grooming and development, and they probably won’t be CCHL-ready for a few years but with the amount of picks we had, we were able to re-stock the cupboard.  I think we’ve added some skill at different positions and hopefully it bodes well for the future.”
Armed with 10 picks in the first three rounds of this years’ CCHL draft, the Miners were able to re-stock the cupboards with some talented young men and improve their prospect pool, as they continue to try and build a team that will be in Kehler Cup contention for years to come. 
The Miners did pull off one significant trade after the draft, trading 13th overall pick, Dylan Holloway to Amos, in exchange for Amos’ 1st round pick in 2022. 
Given the additions that the Miners have injected into their line-up this off-season, they are one of a handful of contenders with a realistic shot at the Cup this year.  It has the potential to be a very good season for the Miners in 2020-21.
Below are some of the Miners more notable picks from this years’ draft:
·         Cole Perfetti – C (1st Round, 7th Overall):  A highly productive pivot who can set it up almost as well as he can score it himself. Has nice puck skills to go along with a very good hockey sense.

·         Hendix Lapierre – C (1st Round, 21st Overall):  Teams may have been scared off due to injury concerns but the Miners could afford to take a chance on him.  A creative player with quick hands and a knack for offense.  

·         Braden Schneider – D (2nd Round, 24th Overall):  Projected by many to be a 1st round pick, so the Miners were pleased that this kid fell to them in the second round.  A throwback, two-way player who has a safe floor as a CCHL player.

·         J.J. Petreka – W (2nd Round, 26th Overall):  A nifty offensive player who has strong anticipation skills and the confidence to jump into openings and drive hard. His finishing ability is hinged on a quick and accurate release where he limits the movement of his bottom hand to add further deception.  Just drafted by London in the 2020 CHL Import Draft.

·         Ozzy Wiesblatt – W (3rd Round, 46th Overall):  The frenetic ball of havoc plays the game like he’s just been shot out a cannon. Loves to create chaos on the forecheck and has enough skill to create chances and points from the forced turnovers. You’ll love him on your team, or hate playing against him.
Overall, fans should not expect to see any of these players with the Miners next year, or even the year after, but it should be a draft that pays dividends down the road, given the high ceiling for a good majority of the players picked.

Sunday, July 5, 2020

State of the Loons; Post Draft Edition


As the IceCats began to celebrate their first Kelher Cup, the Loons front office started to discuss the team's future. Once we decided to rebuild, the 2020 draft became our top priority. At the beginning of April the Loons held just 12 picks, best of which was the 44th overall. After meeting with our scouts we decided that no one on our roster was safe, this year's draft was worth the investment. We added the 18th overall for Atkinson, then picked up the 7th overall for Dubois, and then Turcotte was sent out for the 8th overall. After some more wheeling and dealing we soon had the 4, 5 & 22nd. We then made a decision which will end up making or breaking the Loons franchise and will be debated for years to come. After packaging the 4 & 5  to move up to draft phenom Quinton Byfield - Bob McKenzie came into our lives and forced us to take a deeper look at Tim Stutzle. 

Without a doubt, Byfield may end up being the best player from the 2020 draft. However some of our scouts expressed concers that there was also a substantial bust factor with Byfield. There were questions about his effort, questions about how he fared against top competition, and questions over if just his size alone allowed him to dominate the weak defense he was facing in the OHL. Tim Stutzle on the other hand was the opposite. He doesn't possess the size and pure potential that Byfield does, but Stutzle's strengths are his effort and his performance against top competition. Stutzle thrived in the World Juniors and was thriving in a mens league at the age of 17. Ultimately, the tie-breaker came down to our love of Trevor Zegras. The fact that Stutzle has been playing LW would be a perfect fit for a future top line of Stutzle, Zegras and Zadina ; the Z line. After three months of rebuilding and blowing up the transaction list; Tim Stutzle was the first of 38 Loon draft picks.

We won't bore everyone with all 38 names, but the Loons drafted 20 forwards, 5 defensemen and 6 goaltenders. The other 7 picks were used to reacquire former 4th overall pick Jesse Puljujarvi, to move up in the draft and to acquire future draft picks. Coming over with Stutzle from Germany are Lukas Reichel (29th) and Max Glotzl (222nd). Glotzl is a player that we consider the steal of the draft at 222. Like Stutzle, Max was playing against men at 17 and is considered Germany's best defensemen outside of Seider. Many general managers snickered at us jumping up in the draft to take goaltender Drew Commesso at 37. Drew was someone that we were not willing to risk missing out on. After Oettinger and Vehvilainen goal-tending is a weak spot in our system and Commesso will definitely strengthen us there. Drew is a local Mass kid that had a fantastic year for a weakened US National team: 2.05 gaa & .920 save %. He was rated as the second best goaltending prospect in the draft for us.

With this investment in the draft the Loons jumped to third in the CCHL in prospects with 80. Our post draft top 20 prospect list:

1.   Trevor Zegras         C
2.   Filip Zadina           RW
3.   Tim Stutzle           LW
4.   Jake Oettinger       G
5.   Jake Bean             D
6.   Matt Boldy            LW
7.   Oliver Wahlstrom   RW
8.   David Farrance       D
9.   Egor Afanasyev     RW
10. Brayden Tracey     LW
11. Zac Jones              D
12. Janne Kuokkanen  LW
13. Jacob Perreault      C
14. Calen Addison        D
15. Shane Pinto           C
16. John Beecher         C
17. Alex Beaucage      RW
18. Jakub Lauko          C
19. Veini Vehvilianen    G
20. Lukas Reichel       LW

and honorable mention ... Max Glotzl    D

I can't wait to see how the Loons draft compares to the upcoming NHL draft. Maybe I will tune in for more then just the Bruins picks this year!

State of the Loons; pre draft edition




Last time we checked in from the offices at the Nest, the Loons were mid fire sale. Looking at our roster, I feel comfortable saying the fire sale is complete. The Loons look to be a shoe in for the lottery next year. That means another top prospect ready to come to Capeside  - wrong. In one of the worst trades in Capeside history we sent our 2021 first rounder to Niagara along with the hefty contract of Travis Zajac for renowned ladies man, and CCHL vagabond - Phil Kessel. At the time, that deal didn't seem too bad. We expected our pick to be toward the lower end of the first round and we were shedding the salary of Travis Zajac. Kessel looked to still have a lot in the tank and seemed to be inspired after being paired with Taylor Hall. Well it didn't work out and we had to basically pay Minnesota to take that portly gigolo off of our hands and away from our women. This single terrible decision set our franchise back years and pushed us to a complete rebuild.

So with nothing left of value on our 30 man roster let's take a look at where the Loons stand. General Manager Czepiel's first priority was strengthening the minor league system. After adding top prospects like Jake Bean, Jake Oettinger, Owen Tippett, David Farrance and Filip Zadina - I would say that was a success. Czepiel's second goal was adding depth to fill in behind our high end prospects. As of today we own 33 picks in the 2020 draft. The majority are late round selection , but 9 picks in the top 100 isn't bad, including the 5th overall selection. Lafreniere and Byfield appear to be locks to go 1 - 2 in the draft. However, the top 7 project to be can't miss studs which leaves us in a good place to land a top line forward. 

There has been a lot of controversy around this years draft due to the pandemic. For the first time ever the CCHL draft will precede the NHL draft. Without that blueprint in place this year, research will be crucial. Our scouts have been working overtime going through scouting reports and holding zoom meetings with potential draft day targets. We expect that our hours of research will land us a couple of solid CCHLers - and at worst we will have brought in plenty of trade assets to sweeten future deals.

In order to acquire all these draft picks a lot of cash was sent out of Capeside. This year's budget has really been dealt a blow. Right now it is projected to be near $105 million. With no expectations of playoff revenue or any on-ice bonus revenue this year, we expect to lose money this year. Ownership did sign off on this spending only because our payroll appears to be very low for the next few years as our philosophy will be to build through our farm system. By the time Zegras and company are ready for raises - our budget will be ready. Hopefully.

The next step for us in the draft in a few weeks. Sudbury has been announced as the home of this year's draft. We have already let the league know that we have no interest in being quarantined in Sudbury and will conduct the draft remotely from here in Capeside.  We have already reached out to Bill Belichick to see if Nike is available to help with our selections. Fingers crossed!



CCHL announces that Sudbury will host the 2020 CCHL Entry Draft




CANADIAN PRESS (Toronto, ON):


As rumoured  earlier in the week, the CCHL confirmed that the City of Sudbury and the Sudbury Miners would be the host for this years 2020 CCHL Entry Draft.   The dates of the draft have yet to be confirmed, but the feeling is that it will take place in late June.


 “The Sudbury Miners are extremely pleased to have awarded the 2020 CCHL Entry Draft, and we consider it a great honour given these trying times”, said General Manager Terry James.  “Even though it is only our fourth season in Sudbury, we feel that the CCHL views us as an outstanding franchise – one that is capable of hosting such a high profile event.”


When asked to comment during the conference call announcement, the CCHL Commissioner elaborated on why Sudbury was the best choice for this years’ event.


“Sudbury is a blue-collar town…..they like to work hard and play harder.  Try getting a table on a Friday night at Wacky Wings, or go to the LCBO any day of the week and be prepared to wait!  With that being said, they love their Miners and we felt it was good to reward the City, the team and their fans with this.  Besides, given the current state of affairs in the world, we can think of no better place that can adhere to the social distancing protocols better than Sudbury.”


                Other cities that recieved consideration were Tampere, Chippawa, Georgetown, Fort Erie and Parry Sound, due to their ability to adhere to social distancing should this pandemic continue.  It has been rumoured that Happy Jacks in Fort Erie offered to cater the event at no charge if Fort Erie was awarded the draft.  Those reports have not yet been confirmed and no one for the hockey operations department for the Falcons could be reached for comment.