Millers Musings - Trade Deadline Edition

 After only making 2 trades the first 2/3 of the season the Millers have been involved in 3 deals in the past week. Below is a write-up of each trade, examining the expected effect on the rest of the this season and a preview of the 24-25 season. 

GEO trades S. Varlamov & J. Martinook to FOR for J. Allen & Y. Gourde…

This season: Varlamov had been an expensive bust as the backup keeper and Martinook fell out of the lineup after the first month. In return the Millers downgraded ratings wise with Allen as the new back-up but gained more flexibility by bringing in Gourde, who can play all 3 positions and contribute on both special teams. With Reilly Smith not clicking on the Larkin line it’s expected Gourde will play RW to relieve some of Larkin’s defensive responsibilities. He’ll also see PK time and could make an appearance on the 2nd PP unit. 

Next season: Gourde’s scoring has dropped off so far this NHL season and it’s likely he’ll be on the 3rd line and on the PK. Allen will battle Lukas Dostal for the right to backup Stuart Skinner in net. 

CAP trades D. Fabbro to GEO for N. Jensen

This season: Jensen has been a mainstay in the lineup recently, but his PK performance had dropped off and he had fallen back into his early season penalty-drawing rut. With Shea Theodore having returned from injury Jensen was likely the odd man out if the Millers went 12-6, as they liked the performance of Jake Bean on the PP and on the 3rd pairing. Fabbro won’t ever live up to his prospect potential but he’s a solid 4 to 6 D and is unusually mobile for a stay at home Dman. He’ll take over a 3rd pairing and PK role.  

Next season: Fabbro is pencilled in for the 3rd pairing and 2nd PK unit for the 24-25 edition of the Millers. 

FOR trades S. Gostisbehere to GEO for I. Barbashev…

This season: Barbashev started out as the top line LW but struggled before finding a home on the 3rd line. He was not playing on any special teams unit though, only getting about 14 minutes a night at even strength. His lineup spot is likely to be taken by either Michael Rasmussen or Blake Coleman on the 4th line, with Andreas Athanasieau dropping to the 3rd line. Gostisbehere was brought in to help the PP and replace offense if Shea Theodore suffers another injury; he’s considered an upgrade over the aforementioned Bean as Theodore cover. He’ll likely to be on the 3rd pairing and 1st or 2nd PP. 

Next season: Ghost will likely be on the 2nd pairing and 1st PP unit. With Theodore’s injury issues this NHL season his presence will be needed to drive offense from the back-end if Theodore is unavailable. 

Projected Lines for rest of 23-24 season:

Compher-Laughton-Giroux

Larkin-McCann-Gourde

Copp-Athanasieu-Smith

Bjugstad-Goodrow-Coleman

Reserves: Rasmussen, O’Connor, Bastian

Miller-Theodore

Skjei-Ferraro

Ghostisbehere-Fabbro

Reserves: OEL, Bean, Walman, Kulak

Skinner

Allen

Projected 24-25 lines:

Larkin-Coleman-Giroux

Compher-McCann-Smith

Copp-Rasmussen-Gourde

Laughton-Goodrow-O’Connor

Reserves: Athanasieu, Guenther, Bastian

Miller-Theodore

Skjei-Ferraro

Fabbro-Gostisbehere

Reserves: Walman, Bean, Jiracek (M)

Skinner

Dostal/Allen

Denver IceChips

 Recently the Spurs have seen themselves slide down to 4th in the Canosa Conference with the Ronin and Ice Caps nipping at their heels one point back.

This prompted a trade for more scoring with Nichushkin on the shelf.
The Spurs brought in Evander Kane from Fort Erie sending back a 1st rounder in 2025.
A steep price for sure but with Kane on the right side 1st line with Nelson & Guentzel, it is hoped more scoring will be stimulated.
The only concern is Kane's endurance.
The Spurs also received several late round picks in 2025 with Kane.

In other news, Guentzel has risen to #1 in scoring for the Spurs with 49 pts (25g, 24a).
#2 is blueliner Petry with 42 (6-36). Coming up in 3rd is rookie dman J.J Moser with 41 (12-29).
Hence the reason for bringing in a forward with scoring potential.

Between the pipes Tristan Jarry has been a disappointment of late.
Hopefully he can return to his early season form.

Reported by I.P. Daley

Millers Musings

 After analyzing the Forwards last week, the spotlight will shine on the Defensemen and Goaltenders today…

Defensemen

Brady Skjei (23.00)

This season:  Skjei has been the workhorse, skating on the 1st or 2nd pair and playing both special teams units. He’s been solid with 32 points, including 9 on the PP, and a plus 17. 

Next year: More of the same. 

K’Andre Miller (22.99)

This season: Miller’s development as a top pair Dman continues. The first half he paired with Skjei, and the 2nd half has seen him next to Theodore. No matter who he ha been with he has produced, with 31 pts ( PP) and a plus 21. 

Next year: Further growth is expected, although his NHL numbers are down so far this season. 

Nick Jensen (20.90)

This season: It’s been an interesting year for the veteran, as he was a healthy scratch and on the trade block after several games with costly penalties and poor PK performance when he wasn’t in the sin bin. Since rejoining the lineup he’s teamed with Skjei on a solid 2nd pairing and has contributed 21 points and has been more disciplined. 

Next year: Age is catching up and it’s likely a 3rd pairing role awaits Jensen in the 24-25 season. 

Shea Theodore (19.76)

This season: He’s been an offensive force with 45 points in 48 games, including 17 with the main advantage. He’s had injury issues, missing a week’s worth of games on 2 occasions. 

Next year: Should continue his elite production, but injury concerns are high given he’s only appeared in 20 of his NHL club’s 42 games thus far. 

Oliver Ekman-Larsson (17.28)

This season: The vet acquired in the off-season rotated through the 3rd pairing with several others in the early part of the season before finding great chemistry with Mario Ferraro and claiming a full time job just before the Millers started their 11 game win streak. 13 points in 37 games and a plus 15 are solid numbers considering his ice-time, although he has not been particularly productive on either special team unit. 

Next year He is UFA, but is having a renaissance season in the NHL. If he returns it will likely be in the same role he  is currently in. 

Jake Walman (16.86)

This season: Expected to be on the 3rd pairing he struggled in preseason and has been in and out of the lineup all year. Through 18 games he has a solid 8 points but his minus 7 in worst on the team and he’s not found chemistry with any D-Man he’s been paired with. 

Next year: If OEL leaves as a UFA he’s first up to replace him. If OEL stays he’ll be the 7th Man, or could be traded. 

Mario Ferraro (16.50)

This season: Opened the season on the 3rd pair but like Jensen, had penalty issues and was a disappointment on the PK which lead to some healthy scratches. Rejoined the lineup next to OEL and has been a rock since, with surprising offense (17 pts in 48 games) and solid defense at ES and on the PK. 

Next year: He likely replaces Jensen in the top 4, and should stay there for a few more seasons as he is only 25. 

Jake Bean (16.42)

This season: Among the 9 Dmen on the Millers roster,  Bean began the year at the bottom of the depth chart. He’s looked good when called upon, with 6 points (2 PP) in 12 games. He’s currently in the lineup with Theodore out and has produced, to the point where the Millers may consider an 11-7 lineup to keep him active. 

Next year: Bean is the midst of a terrible NHL season, and is likely to find himself as a reserve if things don’t pick-up. 

Brett Kulak (14.60)

This season: Acquired as depth, Kulak has only seen the ice 11 times, with 2 points and a minus 5. He’s replaced Bean as at the bottom of the depth chart and is unlikely to see any more games this season. 

Next year: UFA and won’t be back, with David Jiricek on the way up as his probable roster replacement. 

Jake Christiansen (0 GP)

This season: Signed as a free agent he’s currently in the minors. 

Next year: The hope was that he would grab a regular role in the NHL in 23-24 but Columbus acquired several vets after GEO signed him and he’s only played 2 NHL games.  An RFA it seems unlikely he’ll play enough to be eligible next season. 

Goaltenders

Stuart Skinner (51 GP)

This season: The rookie net minder is among CCHL leaders in games played and save percentage. He’s exceeded all expectations. 

Next year: A rocky NHL start caused some concern, but he’s shown his quality of late and is solidifying himself as Georgetown’s starting goalie for the foreseeable future. 

Semyon Varlamov (9 GP)

This season: Brought in as a veteran backup and potential 1B if Skinner struggled, Varlamov has barely seen the ice and has  struggled when called upon with a .863 save %. 

Next year: Could return as a high priced backup, but  a solid NHL season and the emergence of prospect Lukas Dostal may see him traded. 

Lukas Dostal (0 GP)

This season: 3rd Goalie has not been called upon yet and is in the minor leagues.

Next year: Has seen regular play in the NHL in 23-24 and has held his own, with a .903 save % on a defensively challenged Anaheim team. Could take over backup duties if Varlamov is traded. 

D Depth Chart 2023-2024

Theodore-Miller

Skjei-Jensen

OEL-Ferraro

Reserves: Bean, Walman, Kulak

Minors: Jake Christiansen

G Depth Chart 2023-24:

Skinner

Backup: Varlamov

Minors: Lukas Dostal

D Depth Chart Projection for 2024-2025

Skjei-Miller

Theodore-Ferraro

Jensen-Walman

Reserve: Bean

Rookie/Minors: David Jiricek

UFAs: OEL, Kulak

G Depth Chart Projection for 2024-25

Skinner

Backup: Varlamov

Rookie Dostal

Falcons deeper but not finished tinkering yet

The Fort Erie Falcons have been busy in the trade market of late, getting a bit grittier in the process over the past few weeks.  

The team paid a heavy price in Jesper Bratt to bring in Brandon Hagel from Niagara Falls, before moving highly coveted prospect Jiri Kulich in a deal to bring in Mats Zuccarello - also from Niagara Falls.  

"I've been trying to get Hagel for months now - just finally got the conversation rolling with Bobby when I tossed out Jesper's name.  Mats is an unrestricted free agent, but we hadn't allocated our UFA re-sign to anyone so I think he's a strong candidate to return next year," said the Falcons' brilliant general manager.  

The team also went about re-building it's future on defence by bringing in Ryan Johnson, Yegor Zamula, and Thomas Harley. 

While Harley certainly was a costly acquisition that saw the team move Evan Bouchard, they also got Cole Sillinger back in that deal to help with the future at center.  

Of course, the need at center became apparent when Shane Wright was shipped out in a move that saw the team bring in Matvei Michkov.  Michkov won't likely debut in the CCHL for several years given his contractual obligation in Russia, but that did not sway Fort Erie.  

In fact, that distance in the future is exactly why the team had an interest.  

"We figure we'll get him when he's 22 or 23.  We are flush with kids coming in the next few years and we expect by the time Matvei comes, he'll already be an impact player in the CCHL.  Imagine being able to sign a guy like that for five years at an entry-level deal.  It seems pretty good to me and that's why we made the move, and Shane was blocked at center for several years so it just made sense," said Falcons GM Young.  

As for what is left to do in Fort Erie before the deadline?  

"We're looking to add to our goaltending for sure.  Lanks (Kevin Lankinen) has been great, but we're definitely open to an upgrade.  We have had conversations, but the pricing on some talent has been absurd so far.  Hopefully as the deadline approaches, we can find some common ground."  

The deadline is just nine days away so we should have our answer soon.  

Millers Musings (for the Around the CCHL Blog)

 Almost 2/3 of the way through the season and the Millers, fresh off their 11 game win streak having been broken, find themselves 6th overall in the CCHL with 73 points after 52 games. They are 7th in scoring and 7th in defense. Overall the club have met their internal pre-season expectations of being a top 10 team in the league.

Over the next few weeks we’re gong to take a look at the team positionally and organizationally, examining the Forwards today. In addition to a review of the current season there will also be a look at how the player projects for next season. Defense and Goalies will be covered next weekend, and the prospects the weekend after that.

The Millers have used every player on the team so far this season; owing to a couple of trades there are 16 forwards currently rostered. The forwards are ranked by their average ice time as a Miller.

Scott Laughton, C/LW (17.88)
This season: After long negotiations with Chippewa, the Millers eventually parted with their 2024 1st rounder to acquire the versatile forward. Since coming to Central KY he’s been worth the high price, scoring 19 points in 16 games and solidifying the LW spot on the top line.
Nest year: Laughton’s NHL TOI has dropped as has his scoring; given his current trajectory he’s liable to be on the 2nd or 3rd line in 24-24.

Dylan Larkin, C (17.44)
This season: The Captain has been among the leading scorers in the CCHL with 67 points through 52 games. After spending the first half as the first line Center, he’s been “demoted” to the 2nd line, but is still top choice on the PP.
Next year: More of the same, playing major minutes, being a leader and scoring a point per game.

Claude Giroux, RW/C (16.16)
This season: The vet has averaged just over a point per game, starting on the 2nd line initially but now on the top line. He shows no signs of slowing down.
Next year: Father Time hasn’t caught up to him yet, and Giroux will once again be leaned on for his scoring in a top 6 RW role.

Andrew Copp, C/LW/RW (16.93)
This season: After a torrid start, Copp has moved down the lineup and is currently the 3rd line C and on the first PK unit, and also  contributes on the 2nd PP. His versatility has seen him play all over the top 9.
Next season: Similar to this year, a 3rd line role with special teams contributions.

J.T. Compher, C/RW (16.61)
This season: Compher has overtaken Larkin as the top line C, showing incredible chemistry with Laughton and Giroux. His 46 points in 52 games put him 3rd on the club. He’s also been an asset on the 2nd PP and PK units.
Next year: At worst he’ll center the 2nd line and play special teams and eat up minutes.

Jared McCann, LW/C (16.41)
This season: The recent acquisition from Capeside has settled in nicely on Larkin’s LW with 7 points in 8 games. Surprisingly he has not scored a PP point yet despite averaging 4.5 minutes of PP duty per game.
Next year: Top 6 LW and PP mainstay, despite his early struggles this season on the man advantage.

Reilly Smith, RW/LW (15.88)
This season: Acquired with McCann, Smith is on his 3rd tour of duty with the Millers franchise. Playing on the 2nd line with Larkin and McCann he only has 1 ES point, but opposite of McCann has contributed 3 points on the 2nd PP unit.
Next year: Middle 6 winger and 2nd unit PP.

Andreas Athanasiou, LW/RW (14.41)
This season: Added late in the preseason and looked upon as bottom 6 cover, “AA” got off to a torrid start averaging over a point per game through the 1st quarter of the season and showing instant chemistry with Copp on the 2nd line. He eventually dropped off the pace and has since settled into a 3rd line role and on the 2nd PP unit.
Next year: Injuries and poor NHL performance have his role in doubt for next year-best case scenario is 4th line but it’s more likely he’s a reserve.

Ivan Barbashev, LW/C (13.66)
This season: Re-acquired with the hope of adding some jam to the Larkin line, Barbashev never really clicked with any of the top 6 combos he was tried on but has found success on the 3rd line of late. He’s supplied the muscle, with 7 fights so far and 92 hits doled out.
Next year: Likely a middle 6 LW and physical presence.

Blake Coleman, LW/RW (12.64)
This season: Signed as a FA to a 2 year, $13 million contract, Coleman has found himself as a scratch during the club’s recent 11 game winning streak. Coleman has not played badly, but has not clicked with any line mates and despite a SH goal was not particularly successful when deployed as a penalty killer. He’s likely to remain a highly paid 13th forward unless injuries strike.
Next year: It could be rags to riches for Coleman next year as he is currently at a .75 ppg pace in the NHL. If he keeps it up don’t be surprised if he’s in the top 6 next season.

Nick Bjugstad, C/RW (12.43)
This season: Bottom 6 forward and penalty-killer. Has played better on the 4th line. Leads GEO’s forwards in PK minutes.
Next year: Bjugstad is UFA, and it’s up in the air if he’ll be re-signed. If he is it’s likely to be in same role as this season.

Jordan Martinook, LW/RW (11.80)
This season: Started as the 2nd line LW and slid down and eventually out of the lineup. Does a lot well but doesn’t have any standout skill and isn’t a special teams guy aside from taking some turns on the 2nd PK unit. An organization and fan favorite but there’s just no spot for him.
Next year: UFA and highly unlikely to return.

Logan O’Connor, RW/LW (11.44)
This season: Despite no offense he found himself in the lineup for the near entirety of the 11 game win streak. The PK has been a little better since he was added and as long as that lasts he’ll stay in the lineup.
Next year: He is RFA but likely to be extended. 4th line winger and penalty killer with no guarantees of consistent ice-time unless the offense picks up.

Michael Rasmussen, LW/C (10.91)
This season: The young and large Swede has not played badly, with 16 points in 45 games despite just under 11 minutes per game and no substantial PP time. A look-see on the 2nd line did not yield positive results which led to the McCann and Laughton acquisitions.  Like Coleman he doesn’t contribute much on special teams and has been out of the lineup recently.
Next year: He should add RW to his positions and has been killing penalties in the NHL, so there’s a good chance he gets back into the lineup, likely on the 4th line.

Barclay Goodrow, C/LW (10.38)
This season: Acquired with the idea of being the depth defensive bottom 6 forward, Barclay has snatched an everyday role with some unexpected offense (17 pts in 46 gp) and excellent ES defense.
Next year: His NHL ice time is down and the CCHL offense is a fluke, so odds are good that Barclay reverts to his original expectation as a depth forward.

Nathan Bastian, RW/C (7.31)
This season. He’s seen the ice on 7 occasions, playing on the 4th line and not scoring. Odds are not good that he sees any more game time this season.
Next year: The RFA may be re-signed but would be a bench player once again if brought back.

This year’s Forward lines to date (C-LW-RW):
Compher-Laughton-Giroux
Larkin-McCann-Smith
Copp-Barbashev-Athanasiou
Bjugstad-Goodrow-O’Connor
Reserves: Coleman, Rasmussen, Martinook, Bastian

Next year’s projection (does not include UFAs):
Larkin-McCann-Giroux
Compher-Coleman-Smith
Laughton-Barbashev-Copp
Rasmussen-Goodrow-O’Connor
Reserve: Athanasiou

UFA: Bjugstad
RFA: O’Connor, Bastian
Potential Rookies/Callups: Dylan Guenther

Dever Ice Chips

 After the game of Day 67, a 6-4 win over the Scorpions, the Spurs are still maintaining 1st place in the Canosa Conference by two points over Sudbury.

Nichushkin continues to lead the Spurs in scoring with 30 points in 29 games with 14 goals and 26 assists.
In second is blueliner Jeff Petry with 27 points while fellow rearguard J.J. Moser is third with 26 points. He registered 3 helpers in the win vs. New Mexico.
Petry, on the other hand, popped in two goals!
Netminder Ranta was injured during the contest with backup Elliott notching the win in relief.

The game on Day 69 sees the Spurs going up against the Sudury Miners in an important Canosa Conference matchup.
Leading the Miners in scoring is Auston Matthews with 45 points (15g, 30a). Following him are Brayden Point 39 points (18g 21a) and Seth Jones 38 points (12g 26a).
The Miners have a total of 13 players with double digits in scoring. So they have quite the depth of scoring throughout the lineup.
In net they have Marc-Andre Fleury & Freddy Andersen.
It will be quite the test for the Denver Spurs come Sunday night.

Reported by I.P. Daley

WIS blog update!

 The Donuts have now played 30 games of the season and here are some reflections.

Results: Last 10 games the team goes 8-1-1 which is an good turn out. despite the results are good there is still around 10 teams that in the hunt for the championship. During the span the Donuts also ended a 9 game winning streak.The Donuts are well positioned but the competition is fierce.

Scoring distribution: Usually the teams in CCHL score more in some part of the game. right now the scoring distribution for the Donuts is divided between the periods 42-48-45 so opponents can't relax at anytime during the game. The scoring distribution in the team is also very good with 5 players above 10 goals and some just below and the defense is the leaders at 7 goals and in a tie with 3 players at that level.

David Pastrnak: Concerns have been raised of Davids performance but in the last 10 games his scoring is back. currently at 11 goals and that is just 1 goal behind the team leaders. The shooting was sub 10% as was his time in Fort Erie but is now a healthy almost 18%. David was relegated to the second line while Kempe takes the first line and that looks like the chemistry finally is working.

Brandon Carlo: Becoming a regular in this column and is now sporting 7 goals during the season, compared to his 3 all last NHL season. He was for a long while outscoring Pastrnak who know looks like he is stepping up though. Brandon is tied for the lead in the Donuts defense scoring department and that is a pleasant surprise.

Tyler Toffoli: A big acquisition in the off season, started of hard and got top minutes. He has now slowed down  with a shooting percent of sub 7% with only around 10 min of action a game. The next season looks promising though...

PK action: The Donuts have a somewhat disappointing power play output. But that is kind of out weight by taking few penalties and being league leader in PK procent. Albeit by a small margin. The Donuts don't have the big names on defense but the they are holding their own and the forwards do help out a lot in their own end and I think we have among the best defensive forwards in the league. But I am a bit partial. :-)