Analysis: Will Dayton Trade Rasmus Dahlin?

Future Dayton Musicman Rasmus Dahlin

The Dayton Musicmen will probably draft Swedish defensive phenom, Rasmus Dahlin with the first pick of the 2018 CCHL Entry Draft.

This pick will be announced very close to 1:00pm on Sunday, June 24th, 2018.

Dahlin will join other Dayton prospects in the opening of the Musicmen training camp in September at the Hobart Arena in Troy, OH. Dahlin's goal, like all the other prospects attending the training camp, will be to make an NHL Team Roster for Dayton's 18-19 regular season.

Dahlin's upside is as high as anyone's has been in the last several years. It will surprise no one if Dahlin spends all of the 18-19 season on an NHL team. From there, he'd join Dayton in the 2019-20 season as he starts his promising career.

Unless, of course, he doesn't belong to Dayton.

What would have to happen for Dayton to trade away the rights to the first overall pick, and surely Mr. Dahlin's services for the next decade or so? What would the return look like?

Dahlin is described as the "no-brainer" first overall choice in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. Scouts and pundits have already predicted his skills and talents will make him better than Erik Karlsson, Victor Hedman or Drew Doughty. The praise stops just short of former Red Wing legend Niklas Lidstrom.

That puts Dahlin in a very special place. A first overall selection comes with a high price tag. A generational player carries an even higher price tag. A top ten pick and a later 1st or a solid prospect still carry with it an element of risk that Dahlin likely doesn't have.

Looking at the Musicmen's prospects, depending on which prospect ranking you look at, they are well represented.

According to Hockey Writer's, they have 7 of the top 100...

According to the Athletic, they have 7 of the top 50...

According to Hockey Prophets, they have 8 of the top 50 forwards and 5 of the top 50 defensemen...

They are tied for first in the CCHL with Hamilton for the most prospects with 73. They hold the rights to 92 picks over the next two CCHL Entry Draft.

A package of many different assets for the rights to Dahlin probably holds little interest for GM Corfield in that Dayton is already established in terms of quantity of prospects. At some point, a team can have too many prospects all arriving in the NHL at the same time, so there is a point of diminishing returns on adding additional prospects.

It is more likely Dayton will more likely consider a smaller offer than a huge one. Anything is possible from the Musicmen, as they have proven over and over again they will trade anyone, any pick or any prospect if they think it makes the team better.

Bottom line, if a team brings a small package of undeniable quality, Corfield will have to consider it seriously. But for other teams to give up a stud young prospect and something to acquire a prospect like Dahlin, it may not have the appeal to actually get any deal done.

If Dahlin wasn't expected to be so good, it might be easier. If there was less separation between Dahlin and the next 3-5 draft-eligible players, that might make it easier for a trade to happen. That's not the case this year and this draft.

We hear next to nothing about any pending deals involving Dayton's 1st pick at this time. Unless something comes up unexpectedly, look for the Musicmen to add Rasmus Dahlin to their already nice stable of young dman (Makar, Sanheim, Fabbro, Hague, Bowey, Cholowski, Guhle & Lindstrom) once the 2018 CCHL Entry Draft begins.