CCHL Playoff Preview: Round 2 Dick “Dirty Mitts” Puxindeep
Well that was a fast first round. Yours truly went 4-0 in predictions for the first round, so my apologies in advance to those teams I’m not picking this time around as I attempt to move to 8-0.
We’ll start in the Canosa Conference where the defending champions find themselves once again in a tough spot to start the second round of this year’s playoffs.
Copenhagen (53-23-7) vs. Reykjavik (55-20-7)
Copenhagen continue their massive winning streak in the playoffs with their first round victory. They have won seven straight series and haven’t lost a playoff round since 2013 – almost three years ago!
Copenhagen handled a very difficult Victoria Ronin team rather easily in round 1, but didn’t blow the doors off in terms of scoring at all. Stamkos leads the team in playoff scoring with 6 points, and is the only player averaging a point per game. The Crusaders are going to need Pavel Datsyuk and Anze Kopitar to be at their defensive best against the high flying Puffin in this series. Shea Weber and Duncan Keith can also expect to see a lot of ice time as the defending champions attempt to tame the highest scoring team in the CCHL. As for the Puffin, the old saying is that defense wins championships but they are trying to change that theory with their offensive talent. There is no denying that Kane, Tarasenko, Kucherov, Giroux, and Thornton are dominant offensive players, with both Subban and Ekman-Larsson adding huge offense from the defense. The surprising question mark in this series is Puffin goaltender Rask. Rask had a rather pedestrian .898 save percentage this season, and his ability to stop the talented offensive players from Copenhagen is a huge key to the series. Rask can expect a lot of offensive turnovers in front of him and the champs know how to take advantage of opportunity. For Rask, Thornton and Giroux, this series is also an opportunity to avenge their finals loss last season while the trio was in Fort Erie.
While it’s hard to bet against the champions in this battle of offense, nobody has done it better than Reykjavik this year and the Puffin are coming in on a huge winning streak of almost 20 games. You never want to bet against back-to-back champions, but they also have to lose at some point, right? I think this is the year, so I’ll take the Puffin in a long, hard-fought series.
Prediction: Reykjavik in 7 games.
Minnesota (53-24-5) vs. Georgetown (52-22-8)
Who is this Phil Kessel and where did he come from? That’s what many hockey fans want to know, because the Kessel with 10 points in six games in round one just hasn’t existed in the past. Every year there is somebody in the playoffs that surprises people, and as much as Kessel did that in round one, I’m not sure anybody expected Vincent Trocheck to post eight points in four games. Lee and McClement also played extremely well for Minnesota, with six points in the four game series.
The challenge for the Norsemen is to sustain that level of production in round two against a much stronger Millers team from Georgetown. Georgetown received a first round bye, and their success may be one of the biggest surprises of the season. That statement is not meant as disrespect as we all knew Georgetown would be much improved, but I can’t personally say I saw them finishing second in the Canosa Conference and earning a first round bye. GM Chris Kash did a great job with this team, shoring up a potential weakness in goal by acquiring Marc-Andre Fleury mid-season from Springfield. Corey Perry has once again been great, adding 59 goals on the season in one of his best CCHL seasons ever. Perry found good chemistry with Nicklas Backstrom and the pair did some serious work on the opposition nets this season. A few other surprises for Georgetown had to be the play of Eric Staal and his 75 points, to go along with the 65 points that Brayden Schenn chipped in. Both players were not expected to produce at this level, and are a big part of why the Millers were as good as they were this year. Roman Josi took a huge step in his career this year as well, posing 75 points and was a plus 35 playing against the Canosa Conference’s best on a nightly basis. There is no telling where the Millers would be without his fine play this season. This series is a tough one to call. In a lot of ways it could really be decided by a coin flip, however I’m not going to pick a team that way.
Georgetown just seem better positioned to advance. I like both groups up front, but feel that a group with Josi and Kronwall on the backend trumps that of Faulk and Boychuk. The goaltending is somewhat equal as well, with both Fleury and Luongo having equal difficulty in the playoffs over the years. It’s a tough call but I like Georgetown just a little bit better in this series, so I’ll take them to advance.
Prediction: Georgetown in 6 games.
Now we’ll move over to the Corfield Conference and look at the second round series’ in that group.
Fort Erie (43-32-7) vs. Dayton (65-12-5)
This series pits the rebuilding and surprising Falcons against the defensively solid Musicmen, who are looking to capture their fourth championship since 2003. The surprising Falcons finished fourth and won a playoff series in a rebuilding year for the franchise and anything that happens beyond this for them will be great for the development of Fort Erie’s young guns like Strome, Nugent-Hopkins, Toffoli and Hamilton. Having said that, they are going to be taken to school by Dayton and scoring goals will be a real challenge in this series for Fort Erie. Dayton gave up a league low 132 goals against this season, and Dayton did it using a goaltending tandem rather than riding one guy to success. Of course that means that Dayton is going to have to use both Dubnyk and Hammond in every playoff series but in a sense that is a good move; Dayton will always have a fresh guy in goal to deal with the grind of the playoffs. While it’s easy to heap praise on the Musicmen for their defensive prowess, their offense was pretty darn good as well. Dayton boasts four players with over 100 points on the season, with league top scorer Jason Spezza having a career season. Speaking of career seasons, Tyler Johnson, Joe Pavelski and Tyler Seguin also had career years while the unheralded Tatar had 95 points of his own as well. Dayton holds the advantage in terms of special teams as well, with the best penalty killing group in the league and falling just .1 percent short of being tied for the top power play team. If this series turns into a special teams’ matchup, Dayton holds the edge there as well. All in all, Dayton will be far too much for the young Falcons to try to handle in this series.
It’ll be a good learning experience for Fort Erie. While they’ll be in every game, the Musicmen will be just too much to handle for the Falcons this year.
Prediction: Dayton in 5 games
Niagara Falls (48-24-10) vs. Calgary (52-17-13)
This one is a real toss up for me. On one hand, I really like Niagara Falls’ team depth and toughness. If this series were going to go to seven games, I like their chances as their physical play can wear down even the best teams (see their playoff run in 2013). On the other hand, Calgary have the game’s best goaltender in Carey Price. Price was far and away the best goaltender in the league’s regular season, posting a 1.84 goals against average and amazing .933 save percentage. The potential problem for Calgary in the playoffs as they go on is goal scoring. This is a team that had 13 ties in the regular season and does not have a player that averaged a point per game in an offensive CCHL league. The 13 ties is indicative of a team that keeps the opposition off of the score board, but don’t quite score enough goals to get them over the hump. With some more goal scoring, this could be a 60 win team this season. Niagara Falls are a veteran group that are very good defensively. Nick Foligno came out of nowhere this season to post a 104 point effort, while free agent signing Marian (don’t call me Maid Marian) Hossa paid dividends with 84 points of his own. Logan Couture and Jonathan Toews were once again themselves, playing great defensive hockey while posting points in the middle to upper 60’s. The issue in this series that needs to be decided is simply whether or not Niagara Falls can score enough goals to beat Calgary, or Carey Price, in this instance. The Thunder take a lot of penalties due to their physical play, so it will be interesting to see if Calgary can take advantage of these opportunities with their 17th ranked power play (14.1%) in the regular season. The Thunder must keep this series at five on five as much as possible, while still being physical, if they hope to have enough shots to score on the Price. They will need to generate offense, but will not be able to do that if they lose focus and lack discipline. Ultimately this series is going to come down to Carey Price and whether or not Niagara Falls can get enough pucks behind him to win the series.
I really like this Niagara Falls team but I’m just not sure that they can score enough goals to win the series. I don’t think it will be a high scoring series, and a few games could even go to overtime, but Price will be just too much for the Thunder offense in this series.
They say defense wins championships, and while I am not sure Calgary have enough goal scoring to win the Corfield Conference, they have enough to win this series in a low scoring battle.
Prediction: Calgary in 6 games.
There you have it folks, my second round predictions are complete. Hope you enjoy the second round of the CCHL’s second season and I’ll be back with my predictions for the conference finals as soon as the matchups become available.
About the author:
Dick “Dirty Mitts” Puxindeep has been a CCHL columnist since December of 2015. When he’s not watching hockey or eating chicken wings, he can be found at local karaoke competitions performing his world famous rendition of ‘Baby Got Back’. Dick knows what he knows and won’t stray from that. Enjoy reading Dick’s semi-regular column here when he posts it.
