State of the Loons ; 20 Games In

Almost a quarter of the way through the season Capeside is sitting atop of the Corfield Conference at 14-6. It would be an understatement to say that the Loons are exceeding expectations. Are the Loons going to be the CCHL version of the Vegas Golden Knights or will the Loons fall back to Earth?

Over the past week, GM Czepiel has added two veteran rentals in Daniel Sedin and James Neal. Sedin plans to retire at the end of the year and Neal is an unrestricted free agent that is not expected to be resigned by the Loons. Czepiel faces a tough decision on whether to stay the course and continue his rebuild or to try and capitalize on the Loons' unexpected success. Since adding Sedin and Neal, Capeside's winning percentage has actually decreased and has seen the Loons drop 2 of their last 3 games. Has by adding scoring, in turn, upset the team's winning chemistry or is the lack of top talent finally catching up with the Loons?

Based on his history, expect Czepiel to continue to tinker with the roster. Hey, it has worked so far. Rumors suggest that the center position is the top priority for Capeside along with adding draft picks. The next 10-20 games should show if the Loons are for real or not, especially with inter-conference play scheduled to start in the next few games. I believe Czepiel owes it to the team and the fans to keep trying to improve the team and take advantage of the strong start, but any further additions should be players that can help the team beyond this year. If it does not work, Czepiel should not hesitate to move veterans like Krejci or Neal to contenders for draft picks and continue the seemingly successful rebuild.

Victoria Ronin Prospect Update #1

The winds of change have been blowing in British Columbia. Over the last season or two, the club has moved towards a younger lineup. The Ronin has also not been active in free agency for quite some time. One of the main reasons for that was a somewhat unhealthy financial situation. So with the latest trade, I thought I would provide a brief article discussing some of the better center prospects for Victoria.

Starting with Brett Howden who is having a surprisingly successful year for a retooling NYR squad, he has played in all situations and scored enough points to be part of the rookie of the year discussion. The Ronin have him penciled in as a checking line center, either 3rd or 4th line. He should fit nicely in a rotation that includes Kuznetsov & Zibanejad.

Quality hockey clubs are built down the middle so the Ronin squeezed Morgan Frost as the major return in the Radulov deal. Frost is having an outstanding season in the OHL so far in 2018. With the NHL Flyers patient rebuilding program, Morgan will most likely see at least 1 season in the AHL before making the jump to the NHL. Fortunately for Victoria, they are in no rush for him to play major minutes for at least a couple of seasons.

Another interesting prospect is Kevin Stenlund now playing as a rookie in the AHL in 2018. Good size and a quality skater the team is viewing this kid as gravy should he make the Blue Jackets at some point in the next season or two. With the aforementioned Kuznetsov, Zibanejad, Victor Rask, Howden & Frost, Kevin Stenlund will have his work cut out for him to be more than a role player for the Ronin.

Team management is also high on Calgary Flames prospect Milos Roman who is currently playing in Nanaimo right across the strait from Vancouver. With good size and skating, he needs more work on his defensive game but was viewed as a top 100 pick in last years NHL draft. The Ronin considered themselves fortunate to be able to draft him considering their poor draft position. Drafted as a center by Calgary his ceiling projects to as high as a 2nd line center, thus adding more powder to the Ronin arsenal.

The last name on this list is Dylan Sikura but he most likely projects as a winger in the NHL so he will be covered in the 2nd part of this series about the Ronin prospects.

Thanks for reading!

A Weekly Look at the 2018-19 Sudbury Miners:  Volume 4

CANADIAN PRESS (Sudbury, ON):

Miners Weekly Record: 1 win, 2 losses, 0 OT loss.
Miners League Standing:  7 wins, 8 losses, 2 OT Loss = 16 points total.  Currently sit in 9th place in the Canosa Conference, 18th overall in the CCHL.
Miners Special Teams:  Power Play – 28.7% (6th); Penalty Kill – 80.3% (3rd)
Miners Scoring Leader:  Winger Sam Reinhart (12G – 9A = 21pts; 20th Overall in the CCHL)

Even after losing record for the week, the Sudbury Miners continue to remain in the thick of the playoff race in the Canosa Conference.  To still be competing for a playoff spot after almost a quarter of the season has to be viewed as progress for this young club.

The Miners started the week with their most complete game of the season -  a 4-0 shutout win versus Siberia.  However, the Miners would peak early in the week and would go on to drop the next two games versus Fonthill and Springfield – two teams that they are battling with for the final playoff spot in the Canosa Conference.  If the Miners are to make the playoffs, they need winning records in weeks like this, in order to distance themselves from other teams chasing the same playoff spot. 

The Miners schedule doesn’t get any less important this week.  They will have a chance to climb in the standings as they have are important conference games versus Siberia, Hamilton, and Minnesota. Anything short of a .500 record would most certainly drop the Miners out of the playoff race at this point in the CCHL season.

MINERS PLAYER PROFILE OF THE WEEK: Charlie Coyle

Coyle, is a strong, sizable and skilled playmaker with excellent work habits, powered like a battery.  He can mix up styles, finesse or toughness, and even blending the two.  He moves adequately on a broad base and his skating has greatly improved from earlier in his career.  He can be crafty and poised with soft, skilled hands which enables him to be a crafty distributor.  He is intelligent and mature which allows him to shift positions and support battles when not in the trenches.  He is a diligent and responsible defender, which allows him to play in a Top 9 role, in any capacity.  His versatility to play all three forward positions is a luxury that most coaches covet.  In 17 games this year, Coyle has a goal and two assists. 

MINERS PROSPECT NEED TO KNOW:  Joel Farabee

Recently acquired in a trade with Fort Erie, Farabee has the tools and temperament to be a force at both ends of the ice. He gets very high grades for his skating ability, puckhandling skills, and the hockey IQ needed to make it all work.  Scouts say that if Farabee were two inches taller and/or 20 pounds heavier, he would not have been available to Fort Erie at 12th overall.  A stronger playmaker than a goal scorer, he has nevertheless showed a promising finishing touch at every level and every setting at which he has played.  He is currently playing in his freshman season at Boston University but given his talent and upside, he may be “one and done” player.  Expected CCHL arrival:  2021-22.

AROUND THE CCHL: Looking at Fatigue & Roster Implications in Simon (As of 11/12/18)

Five weeks into the 2018-19 CCHL season and we may be starting to see some trends in our young season...

1) The Capeside Loons have been the hottest team in the CCHL over the last ten games, going 8-2-0. Right behind them with a 7-2-1 record is the Chinook and the Norsemen.

2) The coldest team(s) in the league over the same time span are the Parry Sound Orrsmen and the Fort Erie Falcons with 2-7-1 records.

3) Let's talk about FATIGUE, shall we?  A stat we all need to understand is the CONDITIONING or CON rating. This can be found in the Line Editor and/or on the Pro Team Roster page.

The more fatigued a player is, the more points are deducted from his CON rating. If a player CON rating falls below 95 (I think) then he will show as exhausted and will be unavailable for at least a day. As days go by, his CON will improve. Also, if a player is injured, that too will reduce his CON number.

IMPORTANT:  If a player gets fatigued and his CON Rating falls below 95, SIMON automatically moves him to your Pro Bench, which results in your "PRO PLAYERS" list being short a man. Remember, you MUST have 20 players dressed. No more, no less. If you don't send in a new set of lines to replace your fatigued and unavailable player, SIMON will send me an error message that a team's roster and/or line-up are illegal. Simon will then automatically "fix" the issue by "dressing" a player from your pro bench.

BTW, I log all the errors for illegal lineups on the GM tracking spreadsheet...

I have no control over who SIMON dresses. It's not like APBA where I entered two teams for every single game. In SIMON, I open my software, I click on "simulate" I see the daily matchup screen then click on SIMULATE and voila! All games scheduled for that day are simmed.

I've heard GM's complaining that "Simon is changing my lines." Like you, I'm learning something new as well. As far as I can tell, fatigue and outright injuries are the most common explanation for this.

You can avoid illegal lineups by checking your Pro Team Roster page on a daily basis. If you see a player with a CON rating of 95 or lower after you've downloaded the most current and updated league files, see if he's still showing as in your lines in your line editor software. If he's missing, you'll need to redo your lines and then send me the new/updated ones.

Any questions? Holler at me...

Captain Sedin, gone but not forgotten

The Icecats parted ways with former captain and future hall of famer, Daniel Sedin. Sedin was one of the few original Icecats after GM Saouaf took over the former Murfreesboro team 5 years ago. Sedin was part of a failing Murfreesboro franchise wallowing in mediocrity. Although the team struggled, Sedin led the team by example and toughed through the tough times. "It was tough the first few years in Siberia. I had a lot of close teammates traded as GM Saouaf tore down the team. The biggest loss was losing Patrik Elias. He and I were close friends and roommates on the road. From that point forward, I did not know what the future held for me, but I knew I wanted to be part of the solution", said Sedin. Sedin indeed suffered through more player losses and losses in the standings.

The 2013/14 and 2014/15 seasons were especially painful as the Lizards/Icecats finished dead last in the league. "I knew we were going to keep losing but I had many meetings with GM Saouaf and he assured me that he had a plan. I trusted him and he was right. It was tough, but I saw a brighter future".

As the Icecats started to turn things around, there was Sedin to captain the team. He took young Connor McDavid under his belt and taught him what it meant to be a professional hockey player. "Daniel was such a huge influence on me in my first couple of seasons, especially after my injury in the first season. He taught me how to work through challenges and hardships and that has made a world of difference with me", said current coach McDavid.

Sedin's leadership continued to help the young Cats grow into the team they are now. "It was sad to trade Daniel but with our current team, he was sitting on the bench and we owed it to Daniel to let him go out on the ice, not the bench," said GM Saouaf. Sedin is now lending his leadership and talents to another rebuilding team who has shown some winning abilities this year, the Loons. Can Sedin help Dubois, who he played with briefly, flourish into a #1 center as he did with McDavid? My gut tells me he can.

Rumors persist that the Icecats will retire Sedin's jersey later this year. Stay tuned sports fans!

CCHL Simon vs. NHL: How do they compare head to head so far?

I've had several GM's comment to me via emails and private messages, that Simon doesn't react the same way APBA did and that the techniques/strategies that were successful in APBA don't seem very effective in Simon so far. As maddening as Simon is for us, we're pretty early in the learning curve, even with most of us participating in the Summer League.  Keep in mind we're just 15 games or so into our 82 game schedule, which gives us a rather small sample size.

Let's dig into some numbers and see how things compare between Simon and the NHL...(Stats were compiled with data from CCHL.com, NHL.com, Hockey-reference.com...)

1) Overall Team Standings: Q: Looking at the CCHL standings after 15 games or so this year, versus at the same time last year with APBA, which simulator has produced a more NHL-like result so far?

In the NHL, the spread between the 1st place and last place team is 14 points. In the CCHL, the spread is 20...Removing the one team at the bottom of the standings, our spread is 15 points...

2) Team Winning Percentage: Q: How do the groupings compare at various levels?

In the NHL, there are 2 teams with winning % over .700, in the CCHL, there are 3...
In the NHL, there are 9 teams with winning % over .600, (but less than .700) in the CCHL, there are 3...
In the NHL, there are 14 teams with winning % over .500, (but less than .600) in the CCHL, there are 11...
In the NHL, there are 5 teams with winning % over .400, (but less than .500) in the CCHL, there are 3...
In the NHL, there is 1 team with winning % less than .400, in the CCHL, there are 2...

3) Team +/- Performance: Q: How do the groupings compare at various levels?

In the NHL, there are 2 teams with a +/- of >+15, in the CCHL, there is 1...
In the NHL, there are 3 teams with a +/- of +10 - +14, in the CCHL, there are 3...
In the NHL, there are 2 teams with a +/- of +8 - +10, in the CCHL, there is 1...
In the NHL, there are 8 teams with a +/- of +0 - +7, in the CCHL, there are 7...
In the NHL, there are 9 teams with a +/- of -7 - 0, in the CCHL, there are 6...
In the NHL, there are 5 teams with a +/- of -8 - 13, in the CCHL, there are 2...
In the NHL, there are 2 teams with a +/- of > - 14, in the CCHL, there are 2... 

While allowing for the different number of teams in each league, it does seem that the graphs of each of the last two comparisons would be similar in shape...

4) Total goals scored per game by both teams combined: 

In the NHL, 6.18 goals scored per game...
In the CCHL, 6.23 goals scored per game...

(Now let's look at individual performance leaders....)

5) Player's points scored...

NHL has 6 players with 20 or more points...
CCHL has 20 players with 20 or more points...

NHL has 36 players with 16 - 19 points scored...
CCHL has 26 players with 16 - 19  points scored...

6) Players Goals Scored...

NHL has 11 players with 10 or more goals...
CCHL has 13 players with 10 or more goals...

7) PIMS...

NHL has 4 players with 30 or more PIMS...
CCHL has 10 players with 30 or more PIMS...

NHL has 23 players with 20 - 30 or more PIMS...
CCHL has 25 players with 20 - 30 or more PIMS... 

8) Goaltending save %...(Min 9 games played...)

NHL has 5 Goalies with .930% or higher...
CCHL has 1 Goalie with .930% of higher...

NHL has 4 Goalies with a save % between .920% & .929%...
CCHL has 5 Goalies with .a save % between .920% & .929%...

9) Goaltending GAA ...(Min 9 games played...)

NHL has 2 Goalies with GAA < 2.00...
CCHL has 1 Goalie with .GAA < 2.00...

NHL has 15 Goalies with a GAA between 2.00 & .3.00...
CCHL has 7 Goalies with .a GAA between 2.00 & .3.00...

Summary: 

If one of the inherent appeals of a sports sim is its realism, it appears that Simon may be far more realistic than APBA was. It may not even be close.

Simon seems to mimic the NHL stats a bit more than I recall APBA doing so. (Ahhh, the benefits of a modern day Sim, eh?)

I think, if this continues, it may foster greater parity and a result, more general interest across the 22 teams and certainly seems to smash to bits the old way of building a monster team and posting unrealistic W/L and individual scoring numbers.

Besides small sample size madness, the strategy component in Simon seems to be the only explanation why some teams with "lesser" talent are out-performing teams with "superior" talent so far...

The best advice I can give anyone who is struggling is to spend more time with the Sim, trying different strategies for the offense/defense/physicality mix and how much time on the ice you're assigning each line and D pairing. Obviously trying different player combinations is always worth exploring.

Also, it's critical to understand the best you can what each rating means. If you haven't spent time with the Simon Manual, I'd urge you to do so asap. You can find it here... Simon Manual

Have fun!

A Weekly Look at the 2018-19 Sudbury Miners: Volume 3

A Weekly Look at the 2018-19 Sudbury Miners:  Volume 3

CANADIAN PRESS (Sudbury, ON):

Miners Weekly Record: 1 wins, 1 loss, 1 OT loss.
Miners League Standing:  6 wins, 6 losses, 2 OT Loss = 14 points total.  Currently sit in 8th place in the Canosa Conference, 17th overall in the CCHL.
Miners Special Teams:  Power Play – 27.1% (7th); Penalty Kill – 79.2% (7th)
Miners Scoring Leader:  Winger Sam Reinhart (9G – 7A = 16pts; 27th Overall in the CCHL)

The Miners had the kind of week you would expect from a .500 hockey club – a win, a loss and an OT loss.  After the week, the Miners remain at .500 and are still in the thick of the playoff race in the Canosa Conference.  
The Miners have a heavy but very important schedule this week.  All four of their contests are important conference games versus Siberia, Fonthill, Springfield and Hamilton.  It is a big week for sure and anything short of a .500 records could potentially drop the Miners out of the playoff race, early in the CCHL season. 
“It’s a big week for us, no question”, stated defenceman Andy Greene.   “There are some tough games in there, but they are winnable.  It’s a real character test for our room and good teams get good results in this kind of stretch”.

MINERS PLAYER PROFILE OF THE WEEK:  J.T. Compher
Compher is a smart, tenacious forward who is versatile and reliable to play in all situations.  His strong vision allows him to create plays and tends to be in the right place at the right time.  His skating has improved substantially since his draft year and has shown the ability to change gears, injecting bursts of speed.  He is adept at getting to the front of goal and has shown outstanding defensive awareness and diligence.  Coaches love his character and highly competitive nature.  He tends to lay it all on the line and can also get quite mean and prickly at times.

MINERS PROSPECT NEED TO KNOW:  Kole Lind
The Miners have been very pleased to with Lind’s development after his draft season. He has shown the ability to play with greater pace and has been more assertive all around.  Already an accomplished offensive player, he has shown those flashes during his rookie season for Utica of the American Hockey League this year.  He is a gifted puck player who couples finishing skills with the instincts of a playmaker. He does not play a soft game, although he could stand to put on a few pounds.  If his development continues on the same path, he could be knocking on the CCHL door sooner rather than later.  Expected CCHL arrival:  2022-23.