Wednesday, November 7, 2018

CCHL Simon vs. NHL: How do they compare head to head so far?


I've had several GM's comment to me via emails and private messages, that Simon doesn't react the same way APBA did and that the techniques/strategies that were successful in APBA don't seem very effective in Simon so far. As maddening as Simon is for us, we're pretty early in the learning curve, even with most of us participating in the Summer League.  Keep in mind we're just 15 games or so into our 82 game schedule, which gives us a rather small sample size.

Let's dig into some numbers and see how things compare between Simon and the NHL...(Stats were compiled with data from CCHL.com, NHL.com, Hockey-reference.com...)

1) Overall Team Standings: Q: Looking at the CCHL standings after 15 games or so this year, versus at the same time last year with APBA, which simulator has produced a more NHL-like result so far?

In the NHL, the spread between the 1st place and last place team is 14 points. In the CCHL, the spread is 20...Removing the one team at the bottom of the standings, our spread is 15 points...

2) Team Winning Percentage: Q: How do the groupings compare at various levels?

In the NHL, there are 2 teams with winning % over .700, in the CCHL, there are 3...
In the NHL, there are 9 teams with winning % over .600, (but less than .700) in the CCHL, there are 3...
In the NHL, there are 14 teams with winning % over .500, (but less than .600) in the CCHL, there are 11...
In the NHL, there are 5 teams with winning % over .400, (but less than .500) in the CCHL, there are 3...
In the NHL, there is 1 team with winning % less than .400, in the CCHL, there are 2...

3) Team +/- Performance: Q: How do the groupings compare at various levels?

In the NHL, there are 2 teams with a +/- of >+15, in the CCHL, there is 1...
In the NHL, there are 3 teams with a +/- of +10 - +14, in the CCHL, there are 3...
In the NHL, there are 2 teams with a +/- of +8 - +10, in the CCHL, there is 1...
In the NHL, there are 8 teams with a +/- of +0 - +7, in the CCHL, there are 7...
In the NHL, there are 9 teams with a +/- of -7 - 0, in the CCHL, there are 6...
In the NHL, there are 5 teams with a +/- of -8 - 13, in the CCHL, there are 2...
In the NHL, there are 2 teams with a +/- of > - 14, in the CCHL, there are 2... 

While allowing for the different number of teams in each league, it does seem that the graphs of each of the last two comparisons would be similar in shape...

4) Total goals scored per game by both teams combined: 

In the NHL, 6.18 goals scored per game...
In the CCHL, 6.23 goals scored per game...

(Now let's look at individual performance leaders....)

5) Player's points scored...

NHL has 6 players with 20 or more points...
CCHL has 20 players with 20 or more points...

NHL has 36 players with 16 - 19 points scored...
CCHL has 26 players with 16 - 19  points scored...

6) Players Goals Scored...

NHL has 11 players with 10 or more goals...
CCHL has 13 players with 10 or more goals...

7) PIMS...

NHL has 4 players with 30 or more PIMS...
CCHL has 10 players with 30 or more PIMS...

NHL has 23 players with 20 - 30 or more PIMS...
CCHL has 25 players with 20 - 30 or more PIMS... 

8) Goaltending save %...(Min 9 games played...)

NHL has 5 Goalies with .930% or higher...
CCHL has 1 Goalie with .930% of higher...

NHL has 4 Goalies with a save % between .920% & .929%...
CCHL has 5 Goalies with .a save % between .920% & .929%...

9) Goaltending GAA ...(Min 9 games played...)

NHL has 2 Goalies with GAA < 2.00...
CCHL has 1 Goalie with .GAA < 2.00...

NHL has 15 Goalies with a GAA between 2.00 & .3.00...
CCHL has 7 Goalies with .a GAA between 2.00 & .3.00...

Summary: 

If one of the inherent appeals of a sports sim is its realism, it appears that Simon may be far more realistic than APBA was. It may not even be close.

Simon seems to mimic the NHL stats a bit more than I recall APBA doing so. (Ahhh, the benefits of a modern day Sim, eh?)

I think, if this continues, it may foster greater parity and a result, more general interest across the 22 teams and certainly seems to smash to bits the old way of building a monster team and posting unrealistic W/L and individual scoring numbers.

Besides small sample size madness, the strategy component in Simon seems to be the only explanation why some teams with "lesser" talent are out-performing teams with "superior" talent so far...

The best advice I can give anyone who is struggling is to spend more time with the Sim, trying different strategies for the offense/defense/physicality mix and how much time on the ice you're assigning each line and D pairing. Obviously trying different player combinations is always worth exploring.

Also, it's critical to understand the best you can what each rating means. If you haven't spent time with the Simon Manual, I'd urge you to do so asap. You can find it here... Simon Manual

Have fun!

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