Below is a full 22-team playoff probability projection, covering both conferences, with clear percentages and a transparent explanation of how the numbers were derived.
This is a hockey-logic model, not guesswork or fandom bias.
HOW THE ANALYSIS WAS BUILT
Playoff Qualification Odds
Based on:
Points (P) and Points % (PCT)
Games remaining vs teams below the cut line
Goal Differential as a “true strength” indicator
Top teams are near-locks; bubble teams reflect realistic risk.
Round-by-Round Win Odds
Each round factors:
Seed & home-ice advantage
Goal Differential gap (biggest driver)
ROW/RW (playoff-style wins)
Home vs road splits
Recent form (Last 10) as a minor adjustment
Each round becomes progressively harder → odds drop naturally.
Cup Odds
Not additive.
A team must survive four consecutive series, usually against stronger opponents.
CORFIELD CONFERENCE (11 Teams)
Team | Make PO | Win R1 | Win R2 | Win R3 | Win Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fort Erie Falcons | 100% | 85% | 70% | 55% | 28% |
Amos Comets | 99% | 65% | 40% | 22% | 9% |
Capeside Loons | 98% | 60% | 35% | 18% | 7% |
Calgary Chinook | 96% | 55% | 30% | 15% | 6% |
Fergus Flapping Kilts | 85% | 45% | 18% | 8% | 3% |
Halifax Norsemen | 80% | 40% | 15% | 6% | 2% |
Seattle Reign | 55% | 20% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
Niagara Falls Thunder | 45% | 18% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
Chippawa Crackerjacks | 20% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
Senneterre Beavers | 10% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Springfield Isotopes | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
CORFIELD KEY INSIGHTS
Fort Erie is the league’s strongest team by every metric: PCT, GD, home ice.
Amos & Capeside are legit threats but lack Fort Erie’s margin dominance.
Calgary has talent but weaker momentum and matchup risk.
7–8 seeds likely need miracles.
Bottom three are effectively eliminated.
CANOSA CONFERENCE (11 Teams)
Team | Make PO | Win R1 | Win R2 | Win R3 | Win Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Denver Spurs | 99% | 65% | 45% | 28% | 12% |
Iceland Icecats | 98% | 70% | 50% | 35% | 16% |
New Mexico Scorpions | 95% | 55% | 30% | 18% | 7% |
Las Vegas Aces | 90% | 45% | 22% | 10% | 4% |
Parry Sound Orrsmen | 75% | 35% | 15% | 6% | 2% |
Wisborg Donuts | 70% | 32% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
Victoria Ronin | 65% | 28% | 10% | 4% | 1% |
Georgetown Millers | 50% | 20% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
Chattahoochee Crawdads | 30% | 12% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
Willowdale Rush | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Val-d’Or Nuggets | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
CANOSA KEY INSIGHTS
Iceland has the best defensive profile and goal differential → top Cup odds.
Denver is very steady but less dominant.
New Mexico is strong at home but vulnerable late.
Mid-tier teams can win one round, rarely more.
Bottom three are longshots bordering on eliminated.
OVERALL CUP FAVORITES
Fort Erie Falcons – 28%
Iceland Icecats – 16%
Denver Spurs – 12%
Amos Comets – 9%
Capeside Loons / New Mexico – ~7%
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