Saturday, March 19, 2016

CCHL Playoff Preview: Finals by Dick “Dirty Mitts” Puxindeep

Well that was a fast conference final round wasn’t it?  Yours truly, the crown prince of prognostication, has gone 9-1 in the playoffs thus far, and I’m looking to add my tenth victory this round.

The Calgary Chinook defeated the Dayton Musicmen in overtime in a thrilling game seven to move on to face the Reykjavik Puffin in this season’s final battle.

Calgary (52-17-13) vs. Reykjavik (55-20-7)

After a devastating sweep of the Georgetown Millers, the Puffin just continue to roll at the right time; with only one team standing between them and the CCHL’s ultimate prize, the Kehler Cup!  The opposition is the Calgary Chinook, fresh off an electric game seven overtime win against regular season champion Dayton to move onto the final.

It’s a battle between the #13 offense of Calgary versus the best offense in the league.  Conversely, it is also a battle between the 13th ranked defense of Reykjavik versus the second best defense in the league; a defense backstopped by goaltender Carey Price. As great as the Dayton offense was all season, Price and the Chinook are in a much different series than they saw with Dayton. The Puffin offense is dangerous and they play a wide open style that has allowed them to finish first in the Canosa Conference. Price will have to continue to produce at his current .935 save percentage pace or greater in the finals, but the Puffin shooters will have plenty to say about that.

Claude Giroux leads all playoff scoring with 15 points, followed by teammates Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko with 14.  The man playing behind Giroux on the Puffin’s second line, Joe Thornton also checks into the top ten scoring with 13 points of his own.  There is no question the Puffin offense could make this the most difficult series of Carey Price’s CCHL career.
Special teams play could be important in this series, as Calgary must avoid giving the Puffin any opportunities on the power play.

The Puffin are denting the twine at an unbelievable 33% in these playoffs, while killing penalties at 87%.  Despite receiving subpar goaltending from Tuuka Rask, who has a save percentage under .900 and a 3.51 goals against average, the Puffin penalty kill has been very good. On the other hand, Calgary have managed to make it to the final with a struggling power play, entering play with the third worst success rate in the playoffs.  The Chinook power play is only better than Victoria and Seattle, who were both eliminated in the first round.  If the Chinook want to capture the Kehler Cup, the power play must figure out a way to score with some regularity in this series.

Calgary are also struggling on the penalty kill, only killing penalties at an 83.9 success rate.  While that is respectable, it has yet to face a five man group like Reykjavik can throw out there on a power play.  With Subban and Ekman-Larsson anchoring the power play units, you can be sure that Calgary’s penalty killers are going to be tired when coming off the ice; provided they aren’t fishing the puck out of their net first.

In the last round I was completely wrong about Calgary, and I might be wrong about them again in this round. Listen, I respect what they have done, but at some point Price will likely succumb to the Puffin attack. If Price doesn’t falter and Calgary win, it would be one of the best goaltending performances in CCHL history.

It’s hard not to take the Puffin when they can continue to run line after line that can score, with a ton of playoff experience in Giroux and Thornton.  With the majority of play in their end, the Calgary defense will eventually tire out; allowing the Puffin to eventually get past the Chinook in spite of Price’s Herculean effort.  Price can only do so much against the Puffin offense, and will fall short in his bid to lead Calgary to their first CCHL championship.

Prediction:  The Winner and NEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEWWWWWW (said in my best Howard Finkle voice)

CCHL Kehler Cup Champions:  the Reykjavik Puffin!  

Playoff MVP:  Despite losing in the Kehler Cup finals, Carey Price takes home the hardware for playoff MVP.  He did it on the thinnest of margins against Dayton and he’ll keep Calgary close in the finals.

There you have it folks, my Kehler Cup final predictions are complete.  Hope you enjoy the final series of the CCHL playoff season. It’s been a great season and couldn’t have been nearly as great without your collective efforts!

About the author:
Dick “Dirty Mitts” Puxindeep has been a CCHL columnist since December of 2015.  When he’s not watching hockey or eating chicken wings, he can be found at local karaoke competitions performing his world famous rendition of ‘Baby Got Back’.  Dick knows what he knows and won’t stray from that.  Enjoy reading Dick’s semi-regular column here when he posts it.

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